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Although it’s taken until the second half of the season, the Subway Series will finally get underway on Tuesday night when the Mets host the Yankees at Citi Field.
Taijuan Walker will start for the Mets while the Yankees will counter with the left-hander Jordan Montgomery.
My model projection has this game as a coin flip, so I don’t see any edge in picking either side. However, the total could be somewhat revealing, considering both teams have experience against the opposing starting pitchers.
We’ll do a deep dive into the numbers and try to assess whether that familiarity will lead to a high-scoring affair.
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Yankees vs. Mets MLB odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Moneyline: NYY (-110) vs. NYM (-110)
Spread: NYY -1.5 (+150) vs. NYM +1.5 (-185)
Total: Over 8 (-120) | Under 8 (+100)
Yankees vs. Mets probable pitchers
Jordan Montgomery (3.24) vs. Taijuan Walker (2.55)
Yankees vs. Mets prediction
With the Subway Series back on center stage, it’s fair to expect this game to be played with high intensity on both sides. As a result, model projections are less helpful in this circumstance, given the passion and emotion, we’ll see from both teams in this rivalry.
Both starting pitchers have given a good account of themselves this season. Walker is 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA, while Montgomery is 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA. Both pitchers have also done well-limiting home runs as Montgomery has a 1.08 HR/9 ratio while Walker’s been even better, boasting a 0.39 HR/9.
However, each will face a stiff test against two of the best offenses in baseball.
The Bronx Bombers rank first with a wRC+ value of 121, while the Metropolitans are sixth with a value of 106. The Yankees also lead the league with a .198 ISO.
I looked at the Statcast data for both lineups against Tuesday’s starters, and the Yankees have an average launch angle of 14.1 degrees and hit six home runs in their last three games against Walker.
The Mets’ launch angle against Montgomery was even higher at 21.8 degrees but only produced one home run in their previous three meetings against the southpaw.
According to ballparkpal.com, we could see a 16% increase in home runs based on Tuesday’s conditions at Citi Field.
Both New York clubs have been more profitable this season for over bettors. The past three meetings for both starting pitchers against their New York counterparts also went over the total.
The total is on a 6-0 run to the over when Walker starts against an AL East team. And when Montgomery gets the start off a Yankees’ loss, the over is on a 6-0 run.
Lastly, the total is 7-1-1 to the over in this head-to-head series.
On Monday, we cashed a ticket by taking the over in the Padres-Tigers game. We could see a similar scenario play out in this Subway Series opener.
Betting on Baseball?
However, the line movement for this game has been a bit strange as bettors pushed the total up to 8 after opening at 7.5. And at the current number, we have some juice to the under at -115.
As a result, it makes sense to play it a bit safe and play the alternate total of 7.5 at -120 odds.
Yankees vs. Mets pick
Over 7.5 runs ALT Line (-120) — BetMGM Sportsbook