Sweden Election: Migration, Crime and Economy Take Center Stage in High-Stakes Vote

Swedes will vote Sunday in an election shaped by concerns over mass migration, crime and the economy. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right party is narrowly trailing the center-left Social Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson.

“Years of gang violence, Islamist extremism, persistent unemployment and pressure on public services have intensified the debate over whether integration has kept pace with immigration,” foreign policy expert and author Daniel Schatz told News Outlet.

After Germany’s AfD won a state election last week, Sweden’s hard-right Sweden Democrats could be positioned to join the government if Kristersson’s party secures another victory. The Associated Press reported that the anti-immigration party has moved closer to the political mainstream and is expected to seek cabinet positions. Until now, it has backed the Kristersson government from outside the governing coalition.

The Associated Press reported that the Sweden Democrats were established by activists linked to far-right extremist organizations, including neo-Nazi groups. Under party leader Jimmie Åkesson, however, the party softened its rhetoric and expelled members accused of racism. Åkesson has led the party since 2005 and is widely credited with turning the once-marginal movement into a political force.

Sweden was once viewed as a model of the Western welfare state. But the country has faced growing economic pressure, prompting governments on both the left and right to restructure its social welfare system.

Although social benefits remain extensive, Sweden’s welfare state has been reshaped amid rising crime. Public expectations surrounding government assistance, however, remain high.

“Sweden went from being described as a ‘humanitarian superpower’ to a “humanitarian basket case.’ Discontent with migration policies extends to both foreign-born and native-born residents. Shootings have declined sharply, but fewer shootings do not mean the integration problems are solved,” said Schatz, who is Swedish.

Kristersson’s government took office in 2022, when Sweden was facing a sharp increase in gun violence. That year, the country recorded 391 shootings and 62 deaths, according to the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, a government agency operating under the Ministry of Justice.

The homicide rate in Sweden has been on the rise since 2013, when gun homicides contributed to a general increase in Sweden’s total homicide rate.

The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention notes that Sweden’s homicide rate ranks very high compared with other European countries, at approximately four deaths per million inhabitants per year.

The average for Europe is approximately 1.6 deaths per million inhabitants.

The issue of immigration is another major issue that dovetails with voters’ concerns over crime and gun violence. Like much of Europe, Sweden experienced a wave of immigration in 2015 coming from those fleeing the Syrian civil war as well as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Sweden took in over 160,000 asylum seekers in 2015, or 12% of all those who sought protection in the EU, according to Sweden’s Migration Agency.

“After the 2015 influx of asylum seekers from Syria and other war-torn countries strained its reception system, Sweden began tightening its borders. The current government has taken that shift much further,” Schatz said.

Prime Minister Kristersson’s parliamentary ally, the right-wing Sweden Democrats, filled the void in the anti-immigration position in parliament.

Nicholas Aylott, professor of political science at Södertörn University in Stockholm, told News Outlet that the link between the increase in immigration and the rise in crime changed Swedish politics.

“Migration and law-and-order became much higher electoral priorities,” Aylott said.

“The Sweden Democrats based their pitch on them. The other parties, rather belatedly, adapted their positions. The Sweden Democrats had at first been completely ostracized by the other parties, but they were gradually accepted as a legitimate partner by three of the other parties of the right between 2018 and 2022,” he said.

As the anti-immigration backlash rose and the Sweden Democrats were more included in the policymaking process, Sweden cracked down on immigration and made it harder to seek asylum.

While asylum claims dropped and gun violence was dramatically reduced as well, with only 158 shootings and 44 fatalities to date, the government still might suffer a defeat at the hands of Andersson’s center-left coalition.