Taiwan Monitors Trump-Xi Summit for Potential Shifts in US-China Relations

KAOHSIUNG, Taiwan: As President Donald Trump engages in discussions with China’s supreme leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, eyes are firmly set on the developments from Taiwan. Across the island, from the presidential office to military command centers and the boardrooms of semiconductor companies, the principal concern is whether Trump will negotiate from a position of strength or leave Taiwan vulnerable.

This island nation, home to 23 million people, has long lived under the shadow of China’s claims, despite Beijing never having governed Taiwan. The Chinese Communist Party insists that Taiwan is a part of its territory, a stance that has contributed to persistent tension in the region.

Experts in Taiwan speculate that Xi might propose a quid pro quo to Trump: relief on tariffs, cooperation on fentanyl, expanded U.S. business access, or alignment on global issues like Iran and Ukraine, in exchange for the U.S. conceding to a greater Chinese influence over Taiwan’s future.

Huang Kwei-bo, a professor at National Chengchi University’s Department of Diplomacy, also sounded a note of caution. In an interview with Fox News Digital, he advised against complacency, warning that Taiwan should not dismiss the possibility of a behind-the-scenes agreement between the U.S. and China. Such an agreement could lead to reduced arms sales to Taiwan or decreased support for its participation in international forums.

Meanwhile, the Chinese military continues its assertive posturing, as demonstrated by recent live-fire drills conducted by the PLA Navy and Army in Fujian Province, just across the strait from Taiwan. The strategic situation remains tense, and the outcome of Trump and Xi’s talks could have significant implications for Taiwan’s future.

In comments on Monday, President Trump acknowledged China’s dislike of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and said the topic would be “one of the many things I’ll be talking about.” 

Over the past week, more than 50 communist Chinese aircraft crossed the Taiwan Strait median line or entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. 

Those numbers are not a dramatic new escalation. In Taiwan, they are increasingly seen as part of a new normal: a sustained pressure campaign that falls short of war but keeps Taiwan’s military on alert. China also intentionally damages the undersea cables that connect Taiwan to the internet, hacks into Taiwan’s computer systems daily, and floods social media with content that praises the communist party.

Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a major concern for Washington. The island is home to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., or TSMC, the dominant producer of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. Those chips are used in smartphones, cars, artificial intelligence systems and U.S. defense technology. Any conflict or blockade that cuts Taiwan off from global markets would ripple through American factories, consumers, technology companies and military planning.

However, as the leaders of the two nations most closely intertwined with Taiwan’s future meet, there is no outward sense of panic here.

“Most people here are not obsessed with China every day,” Audrey Chiang, who runs a tourist souvenir shop in Kaohsiung, told Fox News Digital. Chiang has a son who is just a few years away from serving one year as a military conscript, a 2024 response to China’s invasion threats. “We go to work. We worry about the next big test at our kids’ school. We complain about traffic. But everyone knows things can change very quickly.”

Taiwan’s legislature on May 8 passed a near US$25 billion supplemental defense spending bill, meant in part to signal to Washington that Taipei isn’t simply depending on America to protect itself. But the package was smaller than the almost US$40 billion requested by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s administration. 

Taipei-based American political analyst, Ross Darrell Feingold, told Fox News Digital that many in Taiwan assume that the U.S., and possibly Japan, will come to the island’s defense in the event of a war. “Going back to the Cold War when the U.S. had a treaty obligation to defend Taiwan, and even after the treaty was abrogated, the consistent assumption is that the U.S. president will send in the military to save Taiwan. More recently, there is a growing assumption Japan will do so as well. But Taiwan still must do what is necessary to prove to its partners that Taiwan’s own people will be on the front line,” he said.

Taiwan’s main political parties have major differences in their approaches to China, but broadly support U.S. arms purchases and agree that Beijing is a threat to democratic Taiwan.

Chinese officials insist Taiwan’s status is an “internal affair.” Taiwan’s elected government rejects that, and so do most Taiwanese, who see Taiwan’s future as something only they should decide.

National Pingtung University Associate Professor Paul Lee is among those who think Xi Jinping is going to push the U.S. president hard on Taiwan. Speaking by phone, he told Fox News Digital that “Xi Jinping almost certainly wants one clear change from the U.S., he’ll want Trump to say the United States ‘opposes Taiwan independence’ rather than the language it uses now that is closer to ‘does not support Taiwan independence.’ To be frank, I don’t think President Trump sees Taiwan as that important – except as the producer of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, and as a source of some revenue from weapons sales.” Lee notes that the difference between “doesn’t support” and “opposes” may not seem like much for Trump, but for Xi, it would be viewed as a major victory.”

For Taiwan’s ruling party, and anyone in Taiwan who supports moves by Lai and his predecessor to establish at home and abroad that Taiwan is not part of China, such a change in language would come as a blow as it implies that the U.S. does not agree with the people of Taiwan having the right to self-determination on their future, Lee explained, and he said Xi Jinping wouldn’t be satisfied with Trump simply saying a few sentences. 

“Trump has roughly three years left on his second term, and Xi will want to ensure the ‘oppose independence’ language translates into a new framework with new rules such as not letting Taiwan President Lai transit through the U.S., as one example. Xi knows U.S. presidents come and go, so the goal is to create a tacit agreement that Taiwan is in the Chinese sphere of influence, he said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed the Chinese Communist Party to assert influence for the country globally through a “United Front” strategy. He reviews troops during his inspection of the People’s Liberation Army garrison in the Macao Special Administrative Region on Dec. 20, 2024. (Li Gang/Xinhua via Getty Images)

Lee said China has been patiently waiting for an opportune moment, and the war in Iran, tariffs and other issues facing President Trump is presenting exactly that.

Lee said Taiwan’s government and academic community will closely scrutinize the official translations of what the two sides “agree” on. “Put simply,” Lee said, “if Xi Jinping agrees to help make things easier for Trump, Xi will not be satisfied with cryptically worded official press releases. He will want to see the beginning of a new U.S.-China framework for dealing with Taiwan.”