South America may soon witness heightened tensions as President Trump issues a stern ultimatum to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. President has demanded Maduro to step down from his role as president, leave Venezuela, and take his family with him. However, Maduro remains defiant, showing no signs of compliance with these demands.

In a clear demonstration of escalating pressure, the Trump administration has significantly bolstered its military presence in the region. Between 10,000 to 15,000 troops have been deployed, alongside the formidable USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier task group and the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group. This military buildup also includes several destroyers and an attack submarine, signaling a potential preparation for further action.

The strategic military movements suggest that the U.S. Department of Defense may be gearing up to forcibly remove Maduro from power. Despite the mounting pressure, Maduro appears resistant to the U.S. administration’s demands for his departure.

Venezuela’s capability to counter the American military presence is limited. The Venezuelan military comprises 63,000 to 100,000 soldiers, supplemented by up to half a million reserves. Their arsenal includes 100 to 200 outdated Soviet-era T-72 tanks, as well as several hundred armored personnel carriers, such as the Russian BMP-3, Chinese VN-4, and Brazilian EE-11 models. However, these forces may not be sufficient to withstand the advanced military technology and strategy of the U.S. forces now positioned in the area.

The Trump administration has been deploying significant military forces into the area. Approximately 10,000-15,000 troops, along with the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier task group and the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group, as well as various other units, including several destroyers and one attack submarine, have already been deployed.

This looks an awful lot like the Department of War is setting up to go in and, basically, deprive Maduro of his marbles. And Maduro doesn’t look open to the Trump administration’s offer.

The ensuing impasse, a source told the outlet, was over Maduro asking for “global amnesty for any crimes he and his group had committed, and that was rejected.” 

“Second, they asked to retain control of the armed forces — similar to what happened in Nicaragua in ’91 with Violeta Chamorro. In return, they would allow free elections.” 

The final issue was timing, according to the outlet, as Washington demanded that Maduro resign immediately – but Caracas refused.

Venezuela isn’t in a good position to resist the American forces in the area. As I wrote on Saturday:

The Venezuelan air force has only a few operational fighters with which to defend its airspace: 3 or 4 aging American F-16 A/Bs, and 15 to 18 Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30MK2 multirole fighters. The F-16s were purchased in the ’80s, and most are grounded due to a lack of repair parts. The Sukhoi fighters were purchased from Russia in 2006.

Venezuela does have some significant ground forces, including 63,000–100,000 soldiers in their army and as many as half a million reserves. They can field 100-200 obsolete Soviet-era T-72 tanks and several hundred Russian BMP-3, Chinese VN-4, and Brazilian EE-11 armored personnel carriers.