SHOWDOWN talks between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky will be like an ice cold poker game, an expert says.
And one of the two adversaries will gain a distinct advantage if potential peace talks, which might influence Europe’s future, commence in Istanbul.
Zelensky and Putin have met in public once before, at the Elysee Palace in Paris, in 2019, when they spoke about the conflict in the Donbas.
But the pair could now meet in the iconic Turkish city as they engage in a game of high stakes diplomatic brinkmanship.
Dr Colin Alexander from Nottingham Trent University mentioned to The Sun that Zelensky should approach the man opposite him thoughtfully.
Putin would be level headed as he goes about trying to achieve his goals – something the Ukrainian needed to respect in order to get peace.
Dr Alexander said: “You’re playing the scenario, but you’re also playing the person as well.
“I know that’s maybe a poker analogy. But that’s kind of where we’re at with this if you’re negotiating with a professional.”
In this intense and emotionally loaded scenario, a significant confrontation could unfold between Zelensky and Putin, reminiscent of the well-known Oval Office dispute.
But Dr Alexander said: “Vladimir Putin is very different type of politician, a very shrewd, very intelligent politician, but he’s not going to engage with Zelensky in that [angry] way.
“I think that there’s there’s much greater seriousness to this, and he’s more likely to be more courteous, I think, to him.”
For Ukraine’s benefit, Dr Alexander said Zelensky had to have the same poker-like mindset.
Zelensky’s country has been invaded and tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed – but wartime diplomacy means talking to people you might detest in order to get peace.
He said: ” In these dreadful circumstances comes an understanding that you have to engage with people who you firmly disagree with, and may well find to be quite repugnant.
“Zelensky hopefully treats it with the maturity and the responsibility that it deserves.
“But that doesn’t mean that Zelensky won’t go in with the sort of painful memory of that moment at the White House in the back of his mind.”
Exactly how the meeting plays out depends on whether the two leaders see a genuine chance at finding an end to the war.
If not, then we would see “dead cats” – distraction tactics, like a fabricated row, could be used by either side to shift the focus from their being no substantive progress, Dr Alexander said.
That could even mean Zelensky ditching his pseudo-combat fatigues for a suit to try and signal to Donald Trump he’s serious about peace and change the media coverage in a clever bait and switch.
Dr Alexander said: “He’s [Zelensky] pretty good at the choreography aspect of politics, which in this highly mediated 21st century is kind of half the battle, or maybe even more than half the battle.”
If there is little progress, then some might see no chance of Putin meeting with Zelensky.
But Dr Alexander said that Putin risked being viewed as “petulant” even in his own country if he wouldn’t meet Zelensky or treated him badly if they did.
If everyone wants peace why is the war in Ukraine still raging? The answer is very simple
Comment by Jerome Starkey, Defence Editor for The Sun
EVERYONE says they want peace, so why is the war still raging in Ukraine?
The short answer is simple: Peace means very different things to very different people.
They have different goals and different motives. Vladimir Putin wants total conquest.
And he wants to be remembered as a modern Tsar who restored Russia’s imperial greatness.
Ukraine wants to survive, as a sovereign independent nation.
Europe wants a chastened Russia and peace that lasts beyond six months.
Trump just wants a deal — any deal at any price — with minerals thrown in for good measure.
He wants to claim the glory and perhaps a Nobel Peace Prize for sorting out the carnage which he sees as Barack Obama and Joe Biden’s mess.
The American position is clear from the terrible deal they want Kyiv to accept.
Their so-called seven-point peace plan would freeze the war on the current front lines and force Ukraine to surrender almost all of its occupied territories — some 44,000 square miles — with almost nothing in return.
The expert believes there likely would be a handshake between the two leaders if they meet with Zelensky more likely to let his emotions show in the hand grasp.
Dr Alexander said: “How these two men will behave in the handshake carries a lot of of weight in it.”
If there is any actual progress on peace, diplomacy would likely occur behind closed doors.
“Whenever there is a sort of bilateral meeting of this nature, particularly given the high stakes… this is very much for public audience.”
But, for Zelensky to have Donald Trump’s backing he has to prove he is serious about peace.
One factor that sits in Zelensky’s favour is that Putin is a dictator and sets Russian policy himself.
Zelensky can reason directly with Putin and could try his best to change the Russian’s mind about an issue during the meeting – and therefore change Russian policy.
Whereas democrat Zelensky still has a democracy he is accountable to.
Dr Alexander said: “What’s interesting is that in in any meeting Zelensky cannot firmly make a decision. He has to go back and speak to other people.”
The brave Ukrainian could go into the meeting with his hands tied trying to impress Trump and his own people.
Shrewd Putin, however, has much more freedom to change as he sees fit.
What is Zelensky’s offer?
On Sunday, Volodymyr Zelensky called Putin’s bluff and said he would travel to Istanbul for a face-to-face peace talks.
Vladimir Putin has always been open to talks – but has not changed his strategic goals away from dismembering Ukraine and replacing its government with a puppet.
Putin is yet to reveal whether he will travel or meet directly with his arch rival.
That’s because Ukraine, the US, and European nations are demanding Russia agree to a 30-day ceasefire as a first step toward peace.
Donald Trump has long demanded a quick peace to end the war.
But Ukraine and Russia both want to keep fighting and are deftly trying to position themselves to win the favour of Trump.
Putin wants to peel America away from supporting Ukraine, while Zelensky needs American weapons and finance to keep fighting Russia.
Zelensky wants an immediate pause in fighting saying “we expect a ceasefire from [Monday] – complete and lasting, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy.
“There is no point in prolonging the killings.”
Trump has put pressure on Zelensky to meet with Putin – even though the Russian leader refused to agree to a ceasefire.
He said: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH.
“Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY.
“At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!
“I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America.
“HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
