Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra has seen his lead narrow in a new California survey, while Republican Steve Hilton picked up a modest gain as the November election draws closer.
Becerra is now backed by 55% of likely voters, a decline from 61% last month, according to a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll.
Hilton, by contrast, ticked up slightly, moving from 36% to 37%. That shift reduced Becerra’s previously wide 25-point advantage to an 18-point lead.
The survey was conducted from Aug. 3 to Aug. 9 and included 2,310 California voters deemed likely to participate in the November election.
Despite the slide, Becerra still holds a clear upper hand over Hilton with less than three months remaining before the general election.
The Democrat continues to lead in many of California’s largest population hubs, including Los Angeles County, San Diego County, the Bay Area and the Central Coast.
Hilton performs better in more conservative parts of the state, including the San Joaquin Valley and the North Coast/Sierra region, while the contest remains tighter in Orange County and the Inland Empire.
Becerra also holds a strong lead among voters who are not aligned with either major party, ahead of Hilton 58% to 30%. He is supported by 88% of Democrats, while Hilton draws support from 91% of Republicans.
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The latest survey marks a notable change from the earlier polling.
In the May IGS survey, Becerra led a hypothetical matchup 52% to 31% among registered voters. Both candidates have since gained support, but Becerra’s standing among likely voters has slipped since the July PPIC survey even as Hilton has made a modest gain.
Becerra’s personal ratings have also improved from May, with 49% viewing him favorably and 43% unfavorably. Hilton is underwater, with 39% favorable and 50% unfavorable.
Still, the Republican has a steep climb ahead in a state where Democrats have a major built-in advantage.
“After the unsettled and chaotic primary, this is shaping up to be a fairly standard California general election, where Democrats enjoy a comfortable edge statewide,” said Eric Schickler, a political science professor and IGS co-director. “Hilton would need to make major inroads among traditionally Democratic-leaning groups to make this a highly competitive race.”
The poll comes as both candidates seek to define themselves ahead of the general election.
Becerra, a former US Health and Human Services secretary and California attorney general, has emphasized Democratic priorities and opposition to President Trump.
Hilton, a former Fox News host, has campaigned on cutting taxes and regulations and attacking California’s high cost of living. Fifty-five percent of his supporters said they back him because of his traditionally Republican policies, while 28% said they liked him because he is outside California’s political establishment.
The matchup between Trump-endorsed Hilton and former Biden Health and Human Services Secretary Becerra to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is weighing a 2028 presidential bid, is slated for Nov. 3.
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