Palestine's Leadership Dilemma: Will a Prisoner, Exile, or Politician Shape the Future?

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A prisoner in Israel, a political exile in Qatar, and an increasingly unpopular politician are the lead candidates to be president of a future Palestinian state, according to polling, but whoever assumes office will face “enormous challenges”.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR) in May asked Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank who they would like to see lead the region, should a peace deal between Hamas and Israel hold.

Palestinians have long called for self-determination and statehood. United States President Donald Trump’s peace plan refers to this as “an aspiration of the Palestinian people” and hints that there may be a “credible pathway” towards these goals after other reforms and redevelopment take place.

But in the immediate future, it dictates that Gaza is governed by a temporary transitional committee made up of “qualified Palestinians and international experts”.

After a transitional phase, a new leader might step in as president of an anticipated Palestinian state.

This person would be the head of the Palestinian Authority (PA), which currently exerts limited control over parts of the West Bank, with Hamas wielding power in the Gaza Strip.

Should a presidential election be held, the leaders of the PA and Hamas could be the leading contenders.

But recent PCPSR polling suggests the most popular candidate, Marwan Barghouti, is serving multiple life sentences in an Israeli jail.

Ian Parmeter, a research scholar at the Australian National University’s Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, told SBS News the research is based on “quite reputable opinion polling”.

Among those who said they would vote, Barghouti got 50 per cent of the support, followed by Khaled Meshaal at 35 per cent and Mahmoud Abbas at just 11 per cent.

Abbas, the ageing president of the Palestinian Authority, on the weekend announced his deputy would assume his role in the event he had to step down or died.

Currently, Hussein al-Sheikh occupies the role, but he faces significant challenges including accusations of ineffectiveness, failing to conduct promised elections, and collaborating with Israel to suppress unrest in the West Bank.

“He’s a man with considerable credibility and popularity, with the potential to unite various Palestinian factions. This could drive a movement that not only addresses President Trump’s 20-point peace plan but also advances the Palestinians toward a two-state solution.”

The clear favourite in the polling was Barghouti, a popular Palestinian figure who rose to prominence as a “very active” leader in protest movements against Israel in the early 2000s.

The polls are conducted three times a year and follow similar annual trends.

Amin Saikal, an emeritus professor at the Australian National University, is a specialist in Middle Eastern international relations.

He described Barghouti as a leader who was supported by both Palestinians and “very moderate” politicians in Israel.

“He is one of those very rare figures who cuts across all the political and social cleavages in Palestine, and he has good relations and he’s retained his popularity among a cross section of the Palestinians,” he said.

Despite being imprisoned in Israel since 2002, Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti remains a widely respected political figure.

A man in handcuffs surrounded by uniformed guards

In 2002, Barghouti was arrested for allegedly orchestrating attacks on Israelis and was convicted two years later for the murder of five individuals, resulting in a sentence of five consecutive life terms plus an additional 40 years.

In 2002, he was jailed for allegedly orchestrating attacks against Israelis and two years later was convicted of murdering five people. He was sentenced to five consecutive life terms plus another 40 years in jail.

Despite his imprisonment, Saikal described him as a unifying figure with a popular following comparable to that of Nelson Mandela, an activist and former president of South Africa who spent time in jail.

Calls for his release

Hamas included Barghouti in its list of Palestinians to be freed from Israeli jails in exchange for the remaining Israeli hostages held by the group.

Israel, however, refused to release him.

Parmeter said the Netanyahu government doesn’t want to release Barghouti because he is a figure who could unite the Palestinian movement.

However, his relatives have appealed for his release and asked for Trump’s support, who said he is considering it.

“If Trump actually insists on it, there’s no doubt that Trump will get his way, and Barghouti will be released,” Parmeter said.

While he may be freed from prison, the “very frail” 66-year-old is not necessarily in a condition to lead.

“After more than 20 years in several Israeli prisons, just how fit and able he might be to play a leadership role is very hard to say,” Parmeter said.

Saikal said Barghouti has a well-known cousin, Mustafa Barghouti, who could be a popular candidate should the former be deemed unfit or unable to run for president.

“His support of the Palestinian cause and the degree of moderation that he has injected into the whole Palestinian nationalist movement make him also a very credible candidate,” he said.

Hamas leader in contention

The second-favourite in the poll was Khaled Meshaal, an exiled Palestinian politician and Hamas leader who now lives in Qatar.

While popular in the survey, Parmeter said he is unlikely to ever be president, as he would likely be arrested by Israel should he ever leave Qatar.

“Hamas is not an entity that the Israelis are prepared to have play any role in the governance of Gaza,” he said.

While Meshaal may not become the head of a Palestinian state, Hamas will still be a “powerful movement” in the region.

“You can’t make it disappear just like that,” he said.

“Getting them disarmed would be extremely difficult. The Israelis have been trying to do this for the last two years without success.”

While Hamas may agree to give up a governing role in the future Palestinian state, it would potentially continue to have a security presence in the Gaza Strip, according to Parmeter.

A Hamas spokesperson recently said the group would disarm if a Palestinian state was created.

PA president faces declining popularity, health issues

The current president of the PA, Mahmoud Abbas, ranked third in the polling, which Saikal said was “unsurprising”.

He said Abbas has been functioning under “very difficult circumstances”.

“He has been leading the Palestinian Authority under Israeli occupation of the West Bank, and that would not be easy for any Palestinian leader,” he said.

Saikal also acknowledged that Abbas, at 89, could be seen as too old to lead a Palestinian state.

Abbas also reportedly has “health issues”, which have prompted him to rely more on his colleagues, according to Saikal.

Parmeter said the PA needs a renewal if it wants to regain public support and one day back a president.

He said a “major overhaul” is needed should the PA have a role to play in future governance and a “peaceful transition of power”.

“Its leader [Abbas] is seen as weak and ineffectual, and it [PA] is riddled with corruption.”

Future president to face ‘enormous challenges’

Not only will the PA require the broad support of Palestinians, but it will also need the sustained interest of Trump, whose backing of a future president will be vital.

“Trump is clearly wary of [Benjamin] Netanyahu and very, very determined to make sure that they will keep him to the promises that he’s made in accepting that 20-point plan,” he said.

“Trump notoriously doesn’t have a large attention span. And if he loses interest in this issue, we could go back to essentially where we were before the 20-point plan was announced, which really would be further Israeli attacks and occupation of Gaza.”

Saikal said a future Palestinian state will need a more “energetic and dynamic” leader than Abbas, who can tackle “enormous challenges”, including Gaza’s reconstruction, uniting Palestinian factions and negotiating effectively with Israel.

“You really need a leader who could overcome the challenges, not only in terms of political barriers and diplomatic barriers and economic barriers, but also in terms of the reconstruction of Gaza and also dealing with these unruly Israeli settlers who have been really harassing and haunting the Palestinians and the West Bank as well as in East Jerusalem.”