President Trump and Republicans are confronting new warning signs ahead of the midterms, with 19 additional House races shifting toward Democrats. Six competitive contests have moved out of toss-up status and into the Democratic column.
The latest ratings update from the Cook Political Report, released October 23, indicates that Republicans face a tougher fight to preserve control of the House. Democrats are now favored in 218 seats—the number required to secure a majority.
Veteran political handicapper Charlie Cook, who founded the report in 1984, has built a strong reputation for predicting shifts in Washington’s balance of power during election cycles.
The report now classifies 220 seats as “Solid,” “Likely” or “Lean Democrat,” compared with 198 seats favored to go Republican.
Seventeen other races remain rated as toss-ups.
Cook projects that Democrats could gain between 12 and 22 seats, potentially giving the party a far larger majority than the narrow advantages it has held in recent Congresses.
Six districts shifted from Toss Up to Lean Democrat in the latest update. Four of those seats are currently represented by Republican incumbents.
The changes include North Carolina’s 11th District, an open seat previously held by Republican Chuck Edwards; Virginia’s 2nd District, where Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans is challenging Democrat Elaine Luria; and Wisconsin’s 3rd District, where Republican Derrick Van Orden faces Democrat Rebecca Cooke.
Arizona’s 6th District, represented by Republican Juan Ciscomani, Colorado’s 8th District, held by Republican Gabe Evans, and Texas’ 34th District, represented by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, also shifted toward Democrats.
According to Cook, six districts shifted from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, including North Carolina’s 11th District, a seat previously held by Republican Chuck Edwards.
Republicans are reducing spending in several House races where their prospects have weakened, redirecting funds to contests they consider more competitive.
Republican Jen Kiggans, who represents Virginia’s 2nd District, is among the GOP incumbents in districts now rated Lean Democrat.
Because Republicans hold four of the six districts, the shifts give Democrats more potential opportunities to pick up seats.
Two more open seats moved from Lean Republican to Toss Up, increasing the number of races considered highly competitive.
Those contests are located in Kentucky’s 6th District and Texas’ 35th District.
California’s 13th District and Texas’ 28th District shifted from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. California’s 21st District moved from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.
At the same time, six Republican-leaning districts were downgraded from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The affected seats are in Alaska, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Texas.
North Carolina’s 3rd and 13th Districts also moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, signaling greater uncertainty about the GOP’s ability to retain seats once viewed as safe.
Republicans are also pulling back advertising and other spending in several House contests where their chances of holding the seats have come under pressure, shifting resources to races they view as more competitive.
The Associated Press reported that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading super PAC supporting House Republicans, canceled planned advertising in four districts while increasing spending in 16 others.
The pullback included Iowa’s 1st District, where Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks faces Democrat Christina Bohannan, and New Jersey’s 7th District, where Republican Representative Tom Kean is running against Democrat Rebecca Bennett.
The four races where the group withdrew spending had accounted for $13.3 million in its advertising investment through October 13.
The shift suggests Republicans are increasingly focused on defending vulnerable incumbents rather than trying to expand their majority.
A separate pro-Trump super PAC, Safety and Affordability, also pulled nearly $1 million in advertising from Nevada’s 3rd District, where Republican Marty O’Donnell is challenging Democratic Representative Susie Lee.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer has acknowledged that Republicans face tough decisions about where to deploy their resources, including walking away from races they do not think they can win.
But Democrats are looking to capitalize on the changing map.
Their House campaign committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive to pay for advertising in additional Republican-held districts, arguing that more seats could now be competitive.
The latest assessment follows another round of ratings changes earlier in October, when 18 House races moved in Democrats’ direction.
Democrats need to flip only a handful of Republican-held seats to take control of the chamber, making the 17 remaining toss-ups particularly important.
