In a recent announcement, former President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s new leadership is seeking a ceasefire, but emphasized that any agreement hinges on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, posting on Truth Social, described the “new regime president” as less radical and more intelligent than previous leaders, although he did not specify with whom the United States is negotiating. In response, Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf dismissed Trump’s claims as “war profiteering 101.” Meanwhile, stock markets responded positively, continuing a relief rally from the previous day, as Trump indicated a willingness to end hostilities with Iran, even if the strategic strait remains closed.

The market rally occurred despite Trump’s ambiguous stance, as he reiterated that a ceasefire would only be possible if the Strait of Hormuz is “open, free, and clear.” He further stated, “Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages.” The USS Tripoli, carrying around 5,000 sailors and Marines across multiple warships, recently arrived in the Middle East. This fleet will soon be joined by the USS Boxer amphibious assault ship from San Diego, along with two other vessels from the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit.

Additionally, thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division, accompanied by several hundred Special Forces, are being deployed to the region. In the financial markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 363 points, or 0.8 percent, the S&P 500 increased by 0.6 percent, and the Nasdaq was up by 0.7 percent. Oil prices have also decreased, with Brent crude falling 2 percent to $102 per barrel, having reached a high of $118 on Tuesday, the highest since the conflict began on February 28. The average national price for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $4.1, up from $2.9 before the conflict. Trump’s ceasefire announcement comes just 12 hours before he is set to deliver a televised address at 9 p.m. ET, discussing the ongoing war.

Trump previously ordered a stand down on military strikes targeting Iranian energy infrastructure as negotiations between Iran and the US continue. The five-day ceasefire was later extended to a 10-day halt in targeting Iranian energy plants, power stations and oil wells after the President said the Iranian government requested an extension. Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi made a rare appearance on the streets of Tehran last night. ‘I came to be among the people, to draw energy from the movement on the ground and to enjoy this unity,’ Araghchi told reporters at an evening rally. ‘This popular cohesion is our greatest defense against any external threat.’

Ever since the start of the conflict, Trump has sent out a flurry of contradictory messages: from declaring the war is won, to giving the regime ten more days to make a deal, to threatening to ‘completely obliterate’ Iran’s energy infrastructure the Strait of Hormuz was not ‘immediately’ reopened for business. NATO nations have been taunted as ‘cowards’ and nothing more than a ‘paper tiger’ alliance which the US ‘needs nothing from’, while at other points they are called upon to ‘go to the strait’ and reopen it themselves. While the US has said talks with Iran were ongoing and expressed optimism, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Tuesday he had received direct messages from US special envoy Steve Witkoff but those did not constitute ‘negotiations’.

Amid mounting hopes for a deal, the US President might deliver an announcement tonight bringing the war to a close, but there is also the possibility he is touting peace as cover for an Easter invasion. An invasion on Good Friday would coincide with the closure of Wall Street and major European markets for a three-day weekend. Trump might time the operation for when markets are closed, especially if the military has only short, sharp missions in mind before they reopen.