The fight for control of Congress is moving into its decisive final phase, and the latest prediction-market data suggests the political map may look far different from what Republicans anticipated only weeks ago.
The Senate, previously viewed as the GOP’s stronger line of defense, has tilted toward Democrats in the newest Kalshi market. The House outlook is even more favorable for Democrats.
Kalshi now puts the odds of Democrats taking control of the Senate after the midterm elections at 64 percent. The market gives them a 91 percent chance of winning the House.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, while Democrats hold 47.
The shift is especially striking in the Senate race, where Republicans maintained an advantage in Kalshi’s projections for much of the campaign.
Now, some of the country’s most recognizable political figures are playing central roles in the battle for the chamber.
Texas has emerged as perhaps the most closely watched contest.
Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton in a race that has drawn national attention.
The increasingly prominent Texas contest between Democrat James Talarico (above) and Trump-backed Republican Ken Paxton could serve as a crucial gauge of the national political climate
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to the Senate in a race against Republican Jon Husted. Kalshi currently gives Brown a 60 percent chance compared with 40 percent for Husted
Kalshi’s latest market gives Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 71 percent chance of victory, compared with 29 percent for Rogers
Kalshi currently favors Talarico with a 58 percent chance of winning, compared with 42 percent for Paxton.
The Texas contest is also the most heavily traded individual Senate race listed on Kalshi, with nearly $14 million in total market volume.
Ohio is another critical battleground in the fight for the Senate.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is campaigning to reclaim his seat against Republican Jon Husted.
The market currently gives Brown a 60 percent chance of winning, while Husted stands at 40 percent.
The contest in Iowa is even more competitive.
Republican Ashley Hinson is at 55 percent in Kalshi’s projection, narrowly ahead of Democrat Josh Turek at 45 percent.
Iowa is therefore one of just two Senate races currently labeled a toss-up by Kalshi, with Texas the other.
South Carolina Republican Darline Graham holds an 86 percent chance of victory, compared with 14 percent for Democrat Annie Andrews
Former Governor Roy Cooper is currently at 94 percent compared with Republican Michael Whatley at six percent
In Kansas, Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is at 69 percent compared with Democrat Adam Hamilton at 31 percent
Maine is another race involving one of the Senate’s most recognizable Republicans.
Democrat Troy Jackson is currently at 71 percent compared with Republican incumbent Susan Collins at 29 percent.
Michigan is also attracting national attention because Republican Mike Rogers is attempting to win a Democratic-held Senate seat.
The current market has Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 71 percent compared with Rogers at 29 percent.
North Carolina is showing a much larger Democratic market advantage.
Former Governor Roy Cooper is currently at 94 percent compared with Republican Michael Whatley at six percent.
New Hampshire is also leaning strongly Democratic in the current market.
Democrat Chris Pappas is at 85 percent compared with Republican John E. Sununu at 15 percent.
Republican Ashley Hinson is currently at 55 percent against Democrat Josh Turek at 45 percent
Nebraska is similarly tilted toward Republicans, with incumbent Pete Ricketts at 68 percent compared with independent Dan Osborn at 32 percent
Iowa’s 1st District is a Republican-held seat where Democrats are strongly favored, with Democrat Christina Bohannan at 80 percent compared with Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 20 percent
Texas and Iowa are currently the closest races on Kalshi’s board.
Ohio is also within a relatively close market range, while Maine and Michigan feature nationally recognizable candidates but larger Democratic advantages.
North Carolina and New Hampshire are currently priced substantially toward Democrats.
There are also Republican-held seats where the market continues to show a substantial Republican advantage.
In Kansas, Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is at 69 percent compared with Democrat Adam Hamilton at 31 percent.
Nebraska is similarly tilted toward Republicans, with incumbent Pete Ricketts at 68 percent compared with independent Dan Osborn at 32 percent.
Florida’s Republican incumbent Ashley Moody is currently at 89 percent against Democrat Angie Nixon at 11 percent.
South Carolina Republican Darline Graham is at 86 percent compared with Democrat Annie Andrews at 14 percent.
In Ohio’s 7th District, Democrat Brian Poindexter is currently at 79 percent against Republican incumbent Max Miller at 21 percent
New Jersey’s 7th District is also attracting attention, with Democrat Rebecca Bennett at 81 percent compared with Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr at 19 percent
In California’s 22nd District, Democrat Randy Villegas is at 90 percent compared with Republican incumbent David Valadao at 10 percent
The Senate battle is therefore being concentrated in a relatively small number of states, with Texas, Iowa and Ohio standing out among the closer contests.
And the broader Senate-control market has moved sharply enough that Kalshi is now also pricing the possibility of Democrats controlling both chambers.
The market currently gives Democrats a 64 percent chance of a Senate victory and a 91 percent chance of controlling the House.
That brings the House into focus.
The battle for the lower chamber is looking increasingly difficult for Republicans, with Democrats currently projected to hold around 230 seats compared with 200 for Republicans.
Democrats need 218 seats for a majority.
That means the current market is pointing to Democrats not just taking back the House, but potentially doing so with a cushion.
And there are already several Republican-held districts where the market is showing substantial Democratic advantages.
In Pennsylvania’s 7th District, Democrat Bob Brooks is currently at 82 percent compared with Republican Ryan Mackenzie at 18 percent.
Iowa’s 1st District is another Republican-held seat where Democrats are strongly favored, with Democrat Christina Bohannan at 80 percent compared with Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks at 20 percent.
New Jersey’s 7th District is also attracting attention, with Democrat Rebecca Bennett at 81 percent compared with Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr at 19 percent.
In Ohio’s 7th District, Democrat Brian Poindexter is currently at 79 percent against Republican incumbent Max Miller at 21 percent. Miller’s alleged ‘abuse’ of his ex-wife and two-year-old daughter, which he has denied, has taken center-stage in the race.
And in California’s 22nd District, Democrat Randy Villegas is at 90 percent compared with Republican incumbent David Valadao at 10 percent.
Those are among the clearest Republican-held districts currently showing a Democratic advantage in the Kalshi market.
But it may come down to the genuine toss-ups that will ultimately determine how the final House map looks.
Kalshi currently lists 24 House races as projected flips, with 23 moving to Democrats and one moving to Republicans.
Among the projected Democratic flips are California’s 22nd District, where Randy Villegas is at 90 percent, and California’s 41st, where Linda Sánchez is at 98 percent.
Nebraska’s 2nd District is also currently projected to flip, with Democrat Denise Powell at 92 percent against Republican Brinker Harding at 8 percent.
Utah’s 1st District has Democrat Ben McAdams at 98 percent compared with Republican Riley Owen at 2 percent.
With Democrats now holding the market advantage in both chambers, the final weeks of the campaign will determine whether those prices hold or whether the map shifts again before voters go to the polls.
