Polling averages suggest President Donald Trump and his Republican Party could be headed for significant losses.
With Election Day just four days away, the next two years of Trump’s political legacy remain uncertain. Much will depend on how much ground Democrats can gain against the Republican majority in Congress, and the latest numbers are raising serious concerns among conservatives on Capitol Hill.
Our News Outlet’s midterm power polling average, which aggregates multiple polling averages, gives Democrats a clear advantage with less than a week remaining before voters cast their ballots.
The latest measure puts Democratic support above 51 percent, compared with 43 percent for Republicans.
That approximately eight-point lead suggests that late shifts among voters in traditionally Republican areas have made the midterms more competitive than they appeared only weeks ago.
From Alaska to Texas and across to Maine, Republicans are facing difficult political headwinds.
Democrats Mary Peltola, James Talarico and Troy Jackson each lead their Republican rivals in recent surveys, although many of those contests remain within the margin of error and could still go either way.
Prediction market data from Kalshi gives Democrats a 92 percent chance of taking control of the House of Representatives and a 70 percent chance of winning the Senate.
National polling averages show Trump and Republicans trailing, raising the possibility of a Democratic sweep in Washington next week
With vulnerable Republicans turning to Trump for help, the president has been traveling across the country and holding rallies designed to strengthen GOP candidates at every level.
Trump is scheduled to appear at a rally in deep-red Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday, in a region he carried by more than 20 points in 2024.
He will appear alongside Congressman Byron Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial nominee facing Democrat David Jolly, who is trailing by only a few points.
So far, the president has focused his campaign appearances on reliably Republican districts rather than the most closely contested battlegrounds.
Even in swing states including Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina—as well as the more recent additions of Kansas and Iowa—Trump has largely visited Republican strongholds while avoiding purple districts.
The approach suggests that Trump is concentrating on defending vulnerable Republican territory instead of taking his MAGA message to independent voters in competitive areas.
As the contests enter their final stretch, Trump’s campaign itinerary has been marked by cancellations and schedule changes.
The president canceled planned stops in Iowa and Kansas earlier this week, but both appearances had been reinstated by Friday morning.
Republican Senator Roger Marshall trails Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton by several points in multiple Friday polls
A Washington Post poll released Friday gave Hamilton a 10-point advantage over Marshall
The Kansas Senate race has tightened, but a new Emerson poll released Friday still showed Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall three points behind Democrat Adam Hamilton.
A Washington Post survey published the same day offered an even more troubling picture for Marshall, giving Hamilton a commanding 10-point lead.
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate since the 1930s, yet the political tide appears to be shifting in this election cycle.
A similar Democratic surge could reach Texas, where state Attorney General Ken Paxton—Trump’s hand-picked candidate—trails Democrat James Talarico in prediction market data and recent polling.
Texas has long been a Republican stronghold, but signs of strain within the MAGA coalition are now appearing in areas that once seemed among the party’s safest territory.
