Recent polls indicate a significant shift in the presidential race, with Donald Trump either closing the gap or widening his lead over Kamala Harris, thereby altering his prospects for winning the upcoming November election.
In our DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model, the former president now enjoys his most substantial lead to date.
The model reveals that Trump triumphs in 65.9 percent of scenarios when the algorithm evaluates all possible data combinations.
This marks a notable increase from Friday, when the model last ran, showing him victorious in 61.4 percent of simulations.
With Election Day just two weeks away, these findings suggest that the window of opportunity for the vice president is rapidly closing.
Momentum has shifted towards Trump following a surge in support since August, a period when the Democratic candidate initially led in the polls and amassed significant funds after President Joe Biden’s unexpected decision not to seek re-election.
The new calculation reflects three new national polls that all show Trump taking a lead over Harris, reducing her longstanding lead in nationwide averages.
Analysts believe Harris will need a decisive win in the national vote numbers to have any chance of prevailing in the swing states that will decide who racks up more Electoral College votes and wins the the White House.
As things stand, the model suggests the most likely outcome is for Trump to sweep the seven battlegrounds, taking the Electoral College by 312 to 226.
But the numbers come with a caveat. Harris is not out of the race.
With a 34 percent frequency of winning in the simulations the contest remains tight, and the model delivers a final verdict that the election ‘leans Trump,’ rather than anything more decisive.
The forecast comes from crunching all the latest polling data, along with election results from the past 80 years plus economic statistics.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said the national polls moving to Trump had made the biggest difference since last week.
‘Less than one percent of all Democrat victories come about as a result of them losing the popular vote and so it is paramount for Harris to win the popular vote if she wants to win the Electoral College,’ he wrote in his briefing Monday.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, but the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model suggests the former president has all the momentum with two weeks to go
‘The latest set of polls are beginning to weaken the assumption that Harris would win the popular vote.’
As that probability weakens, he added, Trump’s odds of an Electoral College victory improve.
‘There has also been a long term trend of the national polling gap between Harris and Trump closing. A month ago Harris led Trump by around 3.5 points in the national polls, currently she leads by around 1.5 points.
‘The electoral fog is lifting and it seems to be revealing a likely Trump win.
Trump was in Asheville, North Carolina, surveying storm damage on Monday
Harris was campaigning with Republican Liz Cheney, trying to win over disaffected conservatives in Pennsylvania tired of Trump
‘We’ve yet to see the impact of Trump’s McDonald’s visit this weekend. A visit that went off very well for Trump…’
Trump spent the weekend in the pivotal battleground state of Pennsylvania, serving fries to McDonald’s customers and attending a Pittsburgh Steelers game.
On Monday, he flew to Asheville, North Carolina, to see the Hurricane Helene-ravaged city for himself.
Harris was in Philadelphia on Monday with Republican Liz Cheney, making an appeal to disaffected conservative voters.
