Republicans are being forced to defend seats they once considered secure as President Donald Trump’s weak approval ratings and growing economic discontent threaten to derail the party’s midterm election prospects.
In deeply Republican Mississippi and Kansas, Democratic challengers have turned Senate races into unexpectedly competitive contests. Republican House incumbents in Colorado and Minnesota are also facing well-funded opponents with just one week remaining before Election Day.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed October 26 showed Trump’s approval rating at 32 percent, while 66 percent of respondents said they disapproved of his performance.
Among likely voters, Democrats held a 53 percent to 44 percent advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot once the preferences of undecided voters were allocated.
The survey also found that 73 percent of respondents believed the cost of living was headed in the wrong direction.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that voter dissatisfaction with Trump, combined with anger over tariffs and the war in Iran, has created a difficult political climate for Republicans. As a result, incumbents in districts and states once viewed as safe are being forced to campaign aggressively to protect their seats.
Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, running for reelection in a state Trump carried by 23 percentage points in 2024, is facing a tougher race than expected against Democrat Scott Colom.
A Change Research poll of 842 likely voters conducted October 21-22 showed Hyde-Smith leading Colom by only three points, 43 percent to 40 percent.
Mississippi Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith has collected just over $6 million for her reelection campaign, but a series of missteps—including remarks about higher grocery prices—has given her opponent material for a viral attack ad
Representative Roger Marshall has raised $6.9 million this election cycle, well below Hamilton’s $16.3 million, and has drawn criticism for comments downplaying high gas prices and for his handling of patients with medical debt
Colorado Representative Lauren Boebert moved to a more conservative district before the 2024 election, but Democrat Eileen Laubacher has outpaced her in fundraising, bringing in $13.7 million compared with Boebert’s $1.2 million
Hyde-Smith has raised slightly more than $6 million in her reelection effort, but her campaign has been hurt by several missteps. Among them were comments about rising grocery costs that Democrats transformed into a viral attack ad.
Asked about the price of meat, Hyde-Smith highlighted less expensive protein alternatives. Democrats have seized on the remarks as they try to connect with voters increasingly focused on affordability.
Trump traveled to Mississippi on Monday night to campaign for Hyde-Smith, who called him the best president of her lifetime.
Even with the challenging political backdrop, Hyde-Smith remains the favorite, according to The Washington Post.
Democrats have not won a Mississippi Senate election since 1982.
Kansas Republican Senator Roger Marshall is encountering a similarly competitive challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, despite winning his first Senate term by double digits.
The latest polling average from The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, published October 27, showed Hamilton at 46.2 percent and Marshall at 45.8 percent—making the race effectively a toss-up.
The numbers highlight the unexpected competitiveness of the contest in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday that Trump’s standing with voters, along with anger over tariffs and the war in Iran, has created such a difficult political environment that Republican incumbents once considered safe are now worried about holding their seats
In southern Minnesota, Republican Representative Brad Finstad is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson, who has consistently out-raised him
Democrats poured more than $1.2 billion into advertising across competitive congressional races nationwide, with spending accounting for more than half of all advertising in over 70 percent of those races.
Marshall has raised $6.9 million this election cycle, far less than Hamilton’s $16.3 million, and has faced criticism over his comments dismissing high gas prices and his handling of patients with medical debt.
Trump is heading back to Texas for a fourth visit this election season on Tuesday, holding rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock to boost embattled Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton as he battles Democrat James Talarico in a tightening race.
The warning signs extend beyond the Senate.
In Colorado, Republican Representative Lauren Boebert moved to a more conservative district before the 2024 election, but Democrat Eileen Laubacher has raised $13.7 million compared with Boebert’s $1.2 million.
In southern Minnesota, Republican Representative Brad Finstad is facing a serious challenge from Democrat Jake Johnson, who has consistently out-raised him.
Outside groups have spent about $276,000 supporting Finstad, while more than $3.1 million has been spent opposing him, according to FEC filings.
Outside Democratic groups are also pouring millions into the race, despite Trump winning the district by double digits in 2024.
According to a Washington Post analysis published October 14, they’ve poured more than $1.2 billion into advertising across competitive congressional races nationwide, with spending accounting for more than half of all advertising in over 70 percent of those races.
The situation echoes the 2010 midterms, when Democrats suffered major losses during the Tea Party wave, including the defeat of longtime Minnesota Representative Jim Oberstar in a district he had won by 35 percentage points two years earlier.
But the Post cautioned that even a significant Democratic wave may produce fewer seat changes than in previous elections because redistricting has left Republicans with fewer House seats in Democratic-leaning districts.
