The potential for insider trading involving top-secret information from the Oval Office during the Iran conflict raises significant security and ethical concerns. The issue has caught the attention of the White House.
Last month, White House staff received a stern warning against using confidential information to make financial market bets, a White House official disclosed to the Daily Mail.
Although the advisory didn’t specifically mention Iran, it was issued amidst the ongoing conflict, reflecting the apprehension of senior White House officials that some employees might exploit their positions for gain on gambling platforms.
Prediction market sites like Polymarket and Kalshi have become popular arenas for individuals betting on a wide range of outcomes, from sports events to the exact words Donald Trump might utter, and even the timing of potential U.S. troop deployments in Iran.
This rise in gambling and prediction markets has fueled speculation that high-level government insiders might be using confidential information to gain an unfair advantage.
An email sent to White House staff on March 24 coincided with increased volatility in oil, stock, and prediction markets, driven by the ever-changing events of the war.
Presidential announcements, like the proclamation of a ceasefire this week or the threat of bombing Iran’s civilization into oblivion the days before that, have caused the markets to jerk and swing wildly.
Before Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz on March 23, billions of dollars of oil and stock futures moved hands, and experts have called for investigations into the fishy trades executed with abnormally good timing.
A White House memo was sent out last month warning staff to not use insider information to profit in financial markets
Kalshi markets how it bans insider trading, a key concern among regulators
Polymarket, another prediction market site, boasts Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser
Some Trump critics have claimed that he’s used his office to manipulate markets; they often cite his choice to make major announcements directly before the market opens or soon after it closes.
Just minutes before Trump announced a temporary pause on strikes targeting Iran’s energy sites at the end of March, billions of dollars starting flowing through the oil market.
Contracts for at least six million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude were sold at around 6.50am on March 23 – roughly ten times the daily average.
At 7.05am, Trump dropped a bombshell on global markets as he said the US wanted to negotiate with Iran.
Oil prices dropped sharply, around 14 percent in a matter of minutes, and money flowed into the pockets of the early traders.
No Trump administration official has been implicated in any wrongdoing.
And that’s not the only time Trump has taken to Truth Social to tout certain stocks or to make a major statement before an official action.
Trump was ridiculed Friday for touting Palantir Technologies on his social media in which he included the stock ticker, prompting questions about who may have purchased the stock before the President celebrated it.
Further, the President appears to at times walk back threats that roil markets negatively, a trading trend that has been dubbed TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out.
First son Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
On Polymarket users can wager on how many social media posts the President will make in a given week, or what words he will say during his speeches, or how long he will drone on for.
The White House has denied that any administration officials have misused nonpublic information for their own financial gain.
‘President Trump has been crystal clear: While he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit,’ White House spokesman David Ingle said in a statement.
‘All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless,’ he added.
Last month, a group of over 40 Democratic lawmakers signed a letter to call on Trump administration financial regulators to clarify restrictions on using inside information to make bets.
Several proposals to ban Capitol Hill staffers from using the prediction sites have circulated in Congress, though none have been passed into law.
