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The 2026 Memorial Tournament, a key event on the PGA Tour calendar, kicks off this Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, who has claimed victory in the past two editions, is set to defend his title against a formidable lineup featuring Ludvig Aberg, Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Justin Thomas. Taking place at the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Columbus, Ohio, this tournament offers many players a crucial opportunity to fine-tune their game ahead of the U.S. Open. Scheffler enters as the +310 favorite, aiming to be the first to win the same event three times consecutively since Steve Stricker in 2011.
Rory McIlroy is making his return after securing a seventh-place finish at the PGA Championship, and he stands at +1200 in the odds for this year’s Memorial Tournament. Other strong contenders include Aberg at +1500, Cameron Young at +1600, and last year’s runner-up, Ben Griffin, at +3500. Before making any decisions on 2026 Memorial Tournament picks, PGA DFS lineups, or One and Done selections, it’s advisable to review the predictions and projected leaderboard from SportsLine’s trusted computer model.
This proprietary model, developed by DFS expert Mike McClure, runs simulations of every PGA Tour event 10,000 times, offering golf betting picks renowned for their profitability.
The same model has successfully predicted 17 major tournaments, including the 2026 Masters—its fifth consecutive accurate Masters prediction—and last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Followers of its betting advice have potentially seen significant gains on betting platforms.
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With the field for the 2026 Memorial Tournament now finalized, the model has once again simulated the outcome 10,000 times, yielding surprising results. Visit SportsLine to explore the full projected leaderboard, perfect for informing your PGA picks, one and done contests, or PGA DFS lineups.
2026 Memorial Tournament predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Memorial Tournament 2026: It is fading Young (+1600), despite there being just two golfers with shorter odds. The model says he stumbles and falls to even crack the top 5. Young’s streak of seven straight top 25s ended at the PGA Championship, and he’ll tee off for the first time since that tournament three weeks ago. The Memorial isn’t the best tournament to welcome him back considering his history, as he’s never cracked the top 20 of the leaderboard in four starts. He’s broken par just once over his last 12 rounds at Muirfield Village, and given him having the third-shortest PGA odds, he’s one to steer clear of with Memorial bets. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: The model is high on Russell Henley at +2000. Henley just collected his sixth PGA victory on Sunday, winning a playoff over Eric Cole at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He has three other top 10s on the season, including at the Masters, and Cole impressed in his last visit to Muirfield. He placed fifth at this tournament in 2025 as his unparalleled precision off the tee makes him a great fit for this course. Muirfield is the fourth-longest course on the PGA Tour schedule, and Henley leads the tour in driving accuracy percentage. Thus, you can always count on Henley to put himself in a great second-shot position on the long fairways Muirfield offers. See who else to pick here.
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How to make 2026 Memorial Tournament picks
The model is also targeting three other longshots of at least +3000 who make runs up the Memorial Tournament leaderboard. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the Memorial Tournament 2026, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 Memorial Tournament odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.
2026 Memorial Tournament odds, favorites
Get full 2026 Memorial Tournament picks, best bets and predictions here.
(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +310
Rory McIlroy +1200
Ludvig Åberg +1500
Cameron Young +1600
Xander Schauffele +1800
Russell Henley +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2200
Si Woo Kim +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2700
Patrick Cantlay +3300
Ben Griffin +3500
J.J. Spaun +3500
Justin Thomas +4000
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Robert MacIntyre +4500
Min Woo Lee +4500
Jordan Spieth +4500
Alex Smalley +5000
Chris Gotterup +5500
Sam Burns +5500
Harris English +5500
Maverick McNealy +6000
Rickie Fowler +6000
Nicolai Højgaard +6000
Adam Scott +6500
Gary Woodland +6500
Sepp Straka +6500
Kurt Kitayama +6500
Justin Rose +7000
Aaron Rai +7000
Ryan Gerard +7000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Sahith Theegala +10000
Jacob Bridgeman +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Shane Lowry +10000
Jason Day +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Ryo Hisatsune +10000
Corey Conners +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Wyndham Clark +10000
Nick Taylor +10000
