NEWTOWN SQUARE, Pa. — Saturday at the 2026 PGA Championship was a whirlwind of excitement, resembling a game of hot potato as the lead changed hands frequently. Aronimink Golf Course was abuzz with action, yet when the dust settled, Alex Smalley emerged as the frontrunner. After starting the day sharing the lead, Smalley delivered an impressive 2-under 68, securing his position at 6 under for the championship. This performance placed him two strokes ahead of contenders Ludvig Åberg, Matti Schmid, Nick Taylor, Aaron Rai, and Jon Rahm, among others who remain hot on his heels.
Reflecting on his ascent, Smalley shared, “I obviously dreamed of this as a kid. It’s amusing because it’s the Wanamaker Trophy, and during my college days, I stayed in the Wanamaker dorm for three years. My parents and I have joked that perhaps this would be the tournament I’d win due to that connection. It’s been a running joke even before I made it here.” He added with a hopeful smile, “It would be pretty cool to actually pull it out tomorrow.”
The Philadelphia crowd played their part, with cheers and groans echoing across the course, each sound signifying a shift on the leaderboard. Players found no solace in checking the leaderboard, as names shuffled with every passing moment.
Saturday’s round saw no fewer than 13 players hold the lead at some point. Chris Kirk looked poised for a sensational 62 before a four-putt double bogey on the final hole dashed his hopes. Meanwhile, Rory McIlroy made a remarkable comeback, posting rounds of 67 and 66 over the past two days.
McIlroy, who started the tournament four strokes over par, is on a quest to climb back to the top of the leaderboard. Should he conquer the demanding 18th hole at this Donald Ross-designed course, he would become the first player since Jordan Spieth in 2015 to contend for the season slam at the third major championship of the year. With six major championships and a career grand slam already to his name, another victory would only enhance his legendary status.
McIlroy’s march back to the first page of the leaderboard started from four strokes on the other side of par. If he were to summit the long walk up the 18th hole at this Donald Ross design, he would be the first since Jordan Spieth in 2015 to take the season slam into the third major championship of the year. Already having six major championships and the career grand slam makes him eternal already, but add another, and the legend will only grow.
“If I had to play the last three holes at 1 under instead of 1 over, I would have got to 5 [under],” McIlroy said. “And I sort of thought if I could go out today and get to that, it would make the leaders shoot under par to either be with me or ahead of me. So, I didn’t get there. I made, I guess, a couple of mistakes the last three holes. I feel like I still did enough to think I have a chance going into tomorrow.”
Someone hoping to follow in McIlroy’s career grand slam footsteps is Rahm, who was one of those 13 players to top the leaderboard in Round 3. He strutted up the last with the lead in hand before a three-putt from 31 feet saw him fall out of the logjam at the top. If the Spaniard ultimately reigns supreme, it would make three straight major championships — Spieth this week, Scottie Scheffler at the U.S. Open and Rahm at The Open — where the grand slam is in play.
Speaking of Scheffler … is he too far back? The deficit reads five after Smalley’s clutch birdie on the 18th hole late Saturday evening gave the smooth-swinging right-hander even more space to operate. While the margin is crucial for Scheffler, the number of players in between him and the top is equally important, as he sits in a tie for 23rd at 1 under.
A player familiar with winning this tournament and doing so with a birdie on the last, Xander Schauffele remains firmly in this conversation as he matched McIlroy’s 66 earlier in the day to stand alongside the Masters champion at 3 under. He gains confidence by the swing, and he understands that, although he may have a late tee time, that may not mean he will be the last man standing.
“Just the way the course plays,” Schauffele said. “I mean, someone early goes and shoots something 6, 7 under, they might just have a chance to win the whole thing, depending on how windy it gets out there.”
Those are just a handful of players who could possibly win the PGA Championship on Sunday. There are a handful more, and even that may not be doing it justice. Regardless, it’s time to trim down the list, and although 54 holes may not have brought a definitive answer, these next 18 most certainly will. Check out the complete 2026 PGA Championship prize money breakdown with payouts from the $20.5 million purse for every golfer who made the cut.
Who can catch the leader and win the Wanamaker?
Odds via DraftKings
T2. Jon Rahm (-4)
Rahm is the favorite on the odds board as an inexperienced Smalley (who has never won on the PGA Tour) and three others at 4 under do not hold a candle to his résumé. The Spaniard had the putter rolling on the front nine on Saturday before it wobbled a bit coming home. Still, he hit 15 greens in regulation and should a similar diet materialize on Sunday, he will be a difficult man to beat. Rahm has that look in his eye, but there have been some late hiccups in recent big moments like last year’s PGA Championship, where he failed to birdie key holes before the Green Mile. Let’s see if the experience pays off. Odds: 9/2
T2. Ludvig Åberg (-4)
The best player from tee to green this week has been none other than Åberg. The Swedish superstar has the ball on a string, but unfortunately, it has wavered off line one too many times on the greens to get him any closer to the lead. The robotic right-hander’s talent is undeniable. The suggestions that he could win multiple major championships are as real as day. The results, however, have not been as Sunday struggles have been the headline of his 2026 season. But that can change quickly in a big way if he keeps his wits about himself and slows things down when the heat rises in the final round. Odds: 6-1
T7. Rory McIlroy (-3)
McIlroy now has 25 major rounds of 66 or lower in his career, falling only behind Tiger Woods (28) in that achievement. McIlroy may need something similar on Sunday, as a round that low would ensure that Smalley would have to break par in order to fend off the man who sat outside the top 100 following Thursday’s play. He continues to play aggressively off the tee, missing in the correct spots, but the scary sight for others is how he has putted his last 36 holes. There will be key 8-foot looks at some point Sunday, and on greens that everyone looks uncomfortable on, McIlroy looks at ease. Odds: 15/2
T7. Xander Schauffele (-3)
Schauffele is a cockroach in the best way imaginable. When everything gets blown up and bogeys are being made and clubs are being thrown, Schauffele slithers his way into contending for another major championship. At the onset of the week, the 2024 PGA champion was lacking a bit of confidence, but he has talked himself up, and his game has responded. He looked like the Schauffele of two years ago on the greens as he made seven key putts from the 5-15 foot range in Round 3. If more of those par looks are for birdie instead on Sunday, he could become the latest multiple-time PGA winner. Odds: 13-1
T23. Scottie Scheffler (-1)
Scheffler missed six putts from inside 10 feet in Round 3 with most of those coming closer to 5 feet. As such, the world No. 1 has dug himself a hole, as anything under par on Saturday when the field scoring average was perfectly par at 70.00 would have been enough to make him the threat to Smalley. Instead, he is just one among them. Scheffler is driving it well, which has opened up his iron play to occasionally shine, but he will have to balance patience and aggression in the final round like a tight-rope act. Odds: 17-1
T7. Patrick Reed (-3)
Reed genuinely loves this type of golf. No Trackman data, no mechanical overload — just stick a peg in the ground, find a feel and try to get the ball in the hole as fast as possible. Reed was cycling through a few swing feels early in the week, and he has since settled on a potential winner as he eyes his second major win. The American has hit only 18 fairways this week and is still ranked inside the top five in approach play. If Reed were to win, one would have to imagine it would be because the driver gave the rest of his game a chance to shine. Odds: 19-1
T11. Chris Gotterup (-2)
Gotterup touched the lead with a birdie on the par-5 9th and then slowly went in the wrong direction on the back nine. He missed the fairway on No. 10, leading to bogey, missed the green long and left on No. 11, leading to bogey, and missed another green on No. 17, leading to … you guessed it … bogey. He missed a number of scoring chances in between the squares, but he kept his composure like a champion. After hitting seven greens on the front nine, Gotterup hit just two on the back. The iron play will need to remain steady if he is to threaten. Odds: 38-1
T11. Justin Rose (-2)
Rose was the pace setter with nine holes to go at Augusta National, and now, he is in the middle of the pack with 18 holes to go at the PGA Championship. His six birdies on Saturday all came from inside 12 feet, showing just how dialed in his new McLaren irons were. Those clubs were easy to blame for a sluggish couple of weeks, but Rose was adamant that it was his swing and not his equipment that was out of whack. After hitting seven fairways the first two days, he split 10 in Round 3. He will need to do that again. Odds: 40-1
T11. Joaquin Niemann (-2)
There is a lot of potential that could be fulfilled on this leaderboard, and Niemann certainly falls in that camp. A player who was labeled as the best in the world this time last year by those on LIV Golf, the Chilean’s form has since fallen off, but his talent remains the same. He has been striking it beautifully all week and has the firepower to play chase, as noted by his back-to-back 3s on Nos. 15-16 to play himself into this championship Sunday. Odds: 51-1
