Festivities for the 2026 U.S. Open are already in full swing at Shinnecock Hills, where practice rounds are underway and the countdown to tournament play has begun in Southampton, New York. Around Long Island — and far beyond — one question is dominating the conversation, aside from whether the New York Knicks can defend their NBA title: Who will be lifting the trophy on Sunday night?
With a loaded 156-player field that brings together top talent from the PGA Tour, LIV Golf and the USGA ranks, the third major of the 2026 season is shaping up to be must-watch golf from the opening tee shot on Thursday. Shinnecock Hills is expected to provide a stern challenge, and forecasted high winds across all four rounds should make the test even tougher.
Even with so much star power in the field, favorite Scottie Scheffler does not arrive in peak form. He has continued to pile up top-10 finishes, but owns just one victory this season and has yet to win at any of the PGA Tour’s biggest events. Rory McIlroy, meanwhile, comes in after securing a second consecutive Masters title, though questions remain about his driving accuracy. He has also played a lighter schedule than usual, leaving open the possibility of some rust.
Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson are both set to miss their third major of the year, though under very different circumstances. If that holds, it would mark the first time in decades that neither player appears in all four of golf’s biggest tournaments in the same season.
Still, the field is hardly short on contenders. Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood are among the notable names hoping to add another big result on one of the USGA’s toughest stages. Fans can also review the complete Round 1 U.S. Open tee times.
So what should fans expect from Long Island this week? Here is a full rundown of predictions and expert picks from CBS Sports as they try to forecast not only the winner, but the biggest storylines likely to unfold in the season’s third major. There is also a closer look at the nine players viewed as the strongest candidates to capture the U.S. Open title.
2026 U.S. Open expert picks, predictions
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick McDonald, golf writer
Quietly one of the best players in the world and quietly becoming a fixture in major championships, Henley has an opportunity to capitalize on his run of form at Shinnecock. The recent winner at the Charles Schwab Challenge has a sneakily good U.S. Open record and was in the thick of it on the second nine on Sunday at Augusta National. Henley is deadly accurate off the tee, precise going into the greens and has the hands and mettle to deal with the vagaries of this U.S. Open.
We’ve got a player here who has been in the final group on Sunday in his last two tournaments; in the latter, Gerard fell just short in a playoff to J.T. Poston at the Memorial. Gaming a new confidence on the greens thanks to a small tweak in setup, Gerard is finding out that the entirety of his game is more than good enough to compete with the best in the world. He has the mental fortitude and the gumption required in U.S. Opens.
The man with three legs of the grand slam in his bag has finished inside the top 25 in his last 32 tournaments. Just want to make sure you see that number: 32! The mark may be the top 10 for this conversation, and despite some visible frustrations at Muirfield Village, Scheffler is still the most well-rounded and best player in the world. He is driving beautifully and possesses an underrated short game. All eyes are on the career grand slam, and the world No. 1 will put on a show.
A little nervous with the lack of noise, but DeChambeau’s shortcomings in major championships this season stemmed from loose iron play and sloppy short-game performances. Those two areas are critical to staying afloat at Shinnecock Hills. The constant wind adds another variable that the artist formerly known as the Mad Scientist will be unable to equate.
The next generation is here. So many options with Jackson Koivun, Preston Stout and the top junior in the world, Miles Russell, but we are going with Stout’s teammate, Fang. The winner of the Amateur Championship last summer, Fang a.k.a “The Vampire,” has an innate ability to get his ball in the hole no matter the circumstances. That is handy at a U.S. Open.
The winner comes in at 2 under for a one-stroke victory. The USGA learned from the 2004 and 2018 championships held at Shinnecock Hills; it will set up the golf course to remain playable into the weekend even with high winds. The only concern thus far is the wind direction in practice rounds, which has yet to mirror the prevailing.
Shinnecock Hills has become synonymous with it in the last two U.S. Opens, and let us not forget the Sam Burns ruling — or lack thereof — in the final round at Oakmont Country Club last season. With wind, the potential for watering greens during rounds and U.S. Open pressure, a big-time golf debate about something will break out.
66 (-4)
278 (-2)
70 (E)
Robby Kalland, golf writer
Did you know Schauffele’s worst finish in nine U.S. Open starts is T14? That’s a remarkable run of consistency at an event that is almost impossible to fake it around when you don’t have your best. Schauffele has always been a major performer (19 top 10s in 36 overall major starts), and while he hasn’t quite returned to the form that won him two majors in 2024, he does have back-to-back top 10s to start 2026. Shinnecock Hills requires the right mindset and a well-rounded game to get the job done. Schauffele has both.
English has a tendency to pop his head up at the top of the leaderboard at majors and has a strong history at the U.S. Open. Shinnecock should fit his game well, as it demands precise ball-striking and excellent putting. Historically, he’s had the ball-striking, although it’s dipped a bit this year, but I don’t think that skill has suddenly left him, and he’s in the midst of an incredible putting season that has him sixth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained.
I’m back in on Rahm after Aronimink. That was a really tough course setup, and he played in total control of his ball from tee-to-green, which we hadn’t seen him do at a proper major test in quite some time. His game is in a great place, and most importantly, he believes he is that guy again after dealing with some real doubts about his place among the world’s best for the first time in his career.
It’s no fun playing it safe and pointing out that DeChambeau in the wind has no shot. That’s kicking a man while he’s down. I’ll be the one to say the tournament favorite will not win. Last time I tried this bit, I had Scheffler and McIlroy being outside the top 10 at the Masters, and they finished 1-2. Alas, I’m not deterred and don’t think Scheffler’s game is where it needs to be to win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock. The ball-striking concerns are real, and in the wind they’ll face this week on greens this nasty, he will not be able to execute his usual risk-averse style well enough to complete the career grand slam.
Koivun and Russell are the headliners getting all the buzz, but this amateur field is incredibly deep. Stout, an Oklahoma State star, who recently bested Koivun to win the individual title at the NCAA championship. Stout can benefit from the attention on Koivun and Russell by getting to just play golf this week without the spotlight, and he can make quite the name for himself with low amateur honors, given the depth of talent headed to Shinnecock this week.
Much like last year at Oakmont, the winner will come in at 1 under or maybe 2 under. The wind is going to be stiff on Thursday and Friday, but even as it lightens a touch on the weekend, the USGA has levers it can pull with the greens to keep scoring exactly where they want it. Someone will post in red figures, but the grand total of golfers to break par in a U.S. Open at Shinnecock will only move to four on Sunday evening.
That list: Scheffler, McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Åberg, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim and DeChambeau. It’s tough to say which three will is it, but Shinnecock is going to take its toll and eliminate a few of the pre-tournament favorites before Saturday.
68 (-2)
279 (-1)
70 (E)
Adam Silverstein, senior director of editorial
Frankly, the pick here is more about leaning on a talented golfer with experience playing in swirling winds, and I was flipping a coin between Fitzpatrick and Tommy Fleetwood, both of whom have been playing well this season. Neither is particularly consistent at the U.S. Open (who is?), but Fitzpatrick conquered The Country Club, besting Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy to claim the trophy a few years ago. With five top-two finishes in the last three months (three of those being victories), his level of play matches the experience in these conditions.
Sleeper — Sam Burns (50-1): Burns enters with consecutive top 10s at the U.S. Open and a solid recent run on the PGA Tour, though he’s struggled closing by going low on Sunday. A breakthrough is coming one of these days, and there’s no better time than the present on Long Island.
Even though Scheffler’s game has not been at its peak of late, he always finds a way. The convergence of Father’s Day, Scheffler’s birthday, and his first attempt at the career grand slam creates a scenario where I’m confident he will come close but not get the job done. Of the six men in the club, none completed the grand slam in his first try at the fourth leg. In fact, it usually takes at least a few opportunities to get the job done. Scheffler has not flexed much confidence on the course despite his well-rounded game, and Shinnecock Hills is not a course he can simply trot onto and dominate.
Not only will more than one golfer finish below the key number, but the winner will also stand multiple shots clear (3 under or 4 under). The USGA loves to create a tough course through distance, pin placement and green treatment; however, while there will be high winds entering the weekend, the weather is otherwise relatively clear. Ultimately, three of those who make the cut will be at even par or better.
It’s not that Koepka is playing poorly, but there’s nothing to indicate that he is a legitimate contender at this tournament. He’s put together some terrific rounds of late but has been unable to group four together in a given event. Koepka’s experience running through Shinnecock Hills (relatively) on his way to the title in 2018 will pay off.
Lowest round: 66 (-4)
Winning score: 277 (-3)
Winner’s Sunday score: 71 (+1)
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors heading into the weekend, including the past five Masters, and find out.
