Shinnecock Hills Golf Club on Long Island will welcome the 2026 U.S. Open starting Thursday, June 18, marking the sixth time the storied layout has staged the championship. The last U.S. Open held at Shinnecock came in 2018, when Brooks Koepka captured the title. Koepka is one of 12 former champions in this year’s field, alongside names such as Wyndham Clark, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm.
Even so, the betting favorite is still a player chasing his first U.S. Open crown. Scottie Scheffler sits atop the 2026 odds board at +550 as he looks to move closer to a career Grand Slam. Rory McIlroy follows at +1200, while Rahm is listed at +1300. Tommy Fleetwood (+2000) and Ludvig Aberg (+2500) are also among the leading contenders. Before making any 2026 U.S. Open selections, bettors are being urged to review the latest projected leaderboard and predictions from SportsLine’s established computer model.
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SportsLine’s proprietary golf betting model, created by DFS expert Mike McClure, runs every PGA Tour event through 10,000 simulations. According to SportsLine, the model has correctly identified 17 major outcomes entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters — its fifth straight successful Masters call — along with last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship.
With the 2026 U.S. Open field now finalized, the model has simulated the tournament another 10,000 times, producing a projected leaderboard that it says includes a few surprises. Full results are available now at SportsLine.
2026 U.S. Open predictions for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka
One of the model’s notable calls is a disappointing showing for Koepka, who is priced at +3500 and remains among the 10 shortest odds despite his past success at Shinnecock. SportsLine projects that he will miss the top 25. His return season on the PGA Tour has been inconsistent, featuring only one top-10 finish while competing in weaker fields because he has not qualified for signature events. Statistically, he has also been shaky off the tee and on the greens, ranking outside the top 100 on tour in both driving accuracy and strokes gained putting.
Koepka’s won five majors, but that seems like lifetimes ago based off his recent performances. He doesn’t have a single top 10 over his last 12 major tournament starts. That includes seven finishes outside the top 40, compared to just three finishes inside the top 25. The model doesn’t forecast Koepka being close to contending for another major win this week, making him one to avoid with U.S. Open bets.
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The model has also locked in its projection for Scheffler (+550) who, with a victory, would become the seventh man in the modern era to complete the Career Grand Slam. His best finish at this major was a runner-up in 2022, as he’s placed in the top 7 in four of his last five U.S. Open starts. Scheffler has also finished in the top 7 in six of his last seven major tournaments but hasn’t been his typical dominant self in 2026.
After having at least six wins in both 2024 and 2025, Scheffler has just one victory this year. Still though, he’s been in contention throughout the year as half of his 12 events have resulted in top-3 finishes. Scheffler has never competed at Shinnecock before, and the last time he played a course for the first time at a major, he placed 14th at this year’s PGA Championship.
The model has also examined McIlroy’s (+1200) chances of becoming a two-time U.S. Open champion, after winning the event 15 years ago in 2011. That was the Irishman’s first major win, while his last missed cut at the U.S. Open came when Shinnecock last hosted in 2018. Historically, this has been McIlroy’s weakest major, with his most missed cuts (5) and tied for his fewest top 5s (4).
While McIlroy ranks in the top 5 in SG: total, SG: tee-to-green and SG: off-the-tee, he is just 125th in driving accuracy percentage. Shinnecock has wide fairways, but they are still challenging due to the thick 5-inch rough that surrounds them. How McIlroy is able to navigate those fairways with his driving not as precise this year will go a long way in deciding if the Masters winner picks up his second major win of the year. See the full U.S. Open projections from the model here.
How to make 2026 U.S. Open picks
The model is also targeting several longshots, including one who is going off at over 30-1. You can only see the model’s picks here.
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Open, which longshots will stun the golfing world, and where will Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy finish? Check out the 2026 U.S. Open odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025, and five straight Masters.
2026 U.S. Open odds, favorites
Get full 2026 U.S. Open picks, best bets and predictions here.
Odds via FanDuel (subject to change)
Scottie Scheffler +550
Rory McIlroy +1200
Jon Rahm +1300
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Matt Fitzpatrick +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Cameron Young +2200
Ludvig Åberg +2500
Bryson DeChambeau +3000
Brooks Koepka +3500
Russell Henley +3500
Collin Morikawa +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Justin Rose +4000
Tyrrell Hatton +4000
Si Woo Kim +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Wyndham Clark +4000
Chris Gotterup +4500
Patrick Cantlay +4500
Patrick Reed +4500
Viktor Hovland +4500
J.J. Spaun +5000
Robert MacIntyre +6000
Hideki Matsuyama +6000
Jordan Spieth +6500
Joaquin Niemann +6500
Shane Lowry +6500
Aaron Rai +8000
Min Woo Lee +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Ben Griffin +8000
Jake Knapp +10000
Harris English +10000
Alex Smalley +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Maverick McNealy +10000
David Puig +10000
Alex Fitzpatrick +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Cameron Smith +10000
Ryan Gerard +10000
Nicolai Højgaard +10000
Kristoffer Reitan +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Bud Cauley +10000
