The much-anticipated schedule for the 2026 NFL regular season was unveiled last week, revealing that the Cleveland Browns will kick off their campaign on September 13th in Jacksonville. They enter the game as early 7.5-point underdogs, marking the second-largest point spread of Week 1. A fascinating aspect is the quarterback contest in Cleveland, with Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and rookie Taylen Green all vying for the starting position. FanDuel has released odds on this intriguing competition.
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This quarterback showdown is both captivating and perplexing, as few recent battles offer the same mix of interest and uncertainty. It’s shaping up to be another challenging season for the Browns, now under the guidance of Todd Monken, their new head coach. Monken previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens, a division rival.
The Browns have endured back-to-back seasons with at least 12 losses for the first time since 2015-2017. This year, their projected win total sits at 6.5, with the Under favored at -125. With odds at +1300 for finishing with the league’s fewest wins, the Browns could potentially secure the top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, which is expected to feature numerous franchise-caliber quarterbacks. However, with a robust defense led by Myles Garrett, they might not perform as poorly as anticipated.
Monken becomes the Browns’ 11th head coach since 1999, ranking them second in the league for coaching changes during that period, just behind the Raiders’ 13. At 60 years old, Monken will be only the eighth non-interim head coach in NFL history to debut at that age or older. History hasn’t been kind to his predecessors, the most recent being David Culley with the Houston Texans, who lasted only one 4-13 season in 2021.
There is a prevailing belief that whoever starts as quarterback in Week 1 and throughout the 2026 season is merely acting as a placeholder. The expectation is that the Browns will draft a top-tier quarterback in 2027, potentially targeting players like Arch Manning from Texas or Dante Moore from Oregon.
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The rookie Green, a sixth-round dual-threat out of Oregon, is the +8000 longshot to start vs. the Jags, and if he does then Green is the next Lamar Jackson or something went badly wrong for Cleveland. The 6-foot-6 Green (+15000 for Offensive Rookie of the Year) is an athlete, that’s for sure. At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, he weighed 227 pounds and ran a 4.36 in the 40-yard dash, a combine record for quarterbacks. Simply making the roster would be a win.
The southpaw Gabriel (+5500 to start Week 1) was Cleveland’s first QB chosen in the 2025 draft at No. 94 overall in Round 3. Gabriel got into 10 games overall and six as a starter, going 1-5, and completed 59.5% of his throws for 937 yards, seven TDs and two picks.
Gabriel’s 31.4 QBR ranked 37th out of 38 NFL quarterbacks who started at least six games in 2025. Who ranked 38th? Sanders, whose QBR of 18.9 was the fifth-lowest of all quarterbacks with at least 200 attempts in the QBR era (since 2006), per ESPN.
Sanders (+136) was the surprise the 144th overall pick in the 2025 NFL draft and opened the year as the No. 4 QB on the depth chart but started the final seven games for Cleveland, going 3-4 and winning the final two. Sanders, who threw an NFL-high 10 picks since his Week 11 debut, wore No. 12 as a rookie but has switched back to the No. 2 that he wore in college. That number was taken in 2025 by Browns wideout DeAndre Carter.
I think we all know enough about Watson (-174) by now, and if he wasn’t on the worst contract in NFL history in terms of fully guaranteed money, then Watson would have been released a long time ago. But owner Jimmy Haslam, who has admitted the sunk cost on that horrendous trade from a few years ago with Houston, has said that Watson has a “great chance” and a “fresh start” with Monken.
Watson, who hasn’t played a game since Oct. 20, 2024, participated in the Browns’ offseason workouts and has no limitations following his Achilles’ tear. Per the Browns beat writers, Watson emerged from minicamp in April with an edge over Sanders for the job even though Watson’s 33.1 Total QBR would rank last among qualifying quarterbacks since he made his debut in Cleveland in 2022. He has been limited to a total of 19 games in that span.
Watson is +2000 to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Cleveland’s first OTAs begin Tuesday and run through Thursday, so we may have some clarity as early as then. The team’s mandatory minicamp is June 9-11. Monken has said that he wants to have a starting quarterback identified before training camp.
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