DES MOINES, Iowa — Temperatures for the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses on Monday are set to be the coldest in the contest’s modern history, with a forecasted high temperature of around 0 degrees in Des Moines, according to the National Weather Service.
But Republican presidential candidates aren’t worried, uniformly saying that they think their supporters are uniquely motivated to come out and vote the night of Jan. 15. And state party leaders also don’t think the frigid temperatures will impact turnout.
Iowa Republican Party Chair Jeff Kaufmann said this week that barring severe weather, he doesn’t think the cold temperatures alone will drive caucusgoers away in large numbers.
“I think as long as there’s not a severe ice storm, I don’t think cold keeps people away,” Kaufmann said, adding later, “It’s one of those things, kind of like a football game, that’s going to go on no matter what.”
While Kaufmann still thinks turnout will be robust, he conceded that it may not break records this year. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration shows that caucus day temperatures haven’t dipped this low in the last half-century.
“Weather could prevent a record-breaking turnout,” he said, turning it into just “great turnout. But you know, it remains to be seen.”
The weather has forced candidates to cancel multiple campaign stops in the final days ahead of the Iowa caucuses, including surrogate events supporting former President Donald Trump that were set to feature former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, current Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and former acting U.S. Attorney General Matt Whitaker. Trump also arrived more than three hours late to a rally in Clinton on Saturday due to a winter storm, but the former president believes nothing will deter his supporters.
“You just have to put on that warm coat and get out there,” Trump said at a rally in Newton earlier Saturday. “I said it to one of our people and they said, ‘Oh, that’s good news.’ I said, why is it good? Because their people don’t have the enthusiasm to vote, and my people will walk on glass.”
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley canceled a campaign stop in Sioux City on Monday due to snow, but a spokesperson said her campaign is not worried that the weather will stop supporters from showing up on caucus night.
“Voters in the Hawkeye State are used to the cold and it won’t stop them from caucusing for Nikki,” Haley spokesperson Olivia Perez-Cubas said.
Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy attacked Haley for canceling the event, writing on X, “If you can’t handle the snow, you can’t handle Xi Jinping.” Then, he canceled three campaign stops of his own on Tuesday due to bad weather conditions.
Ramaswamy, like Trump, said Monday that he thinks the frigid temperatures could actually help his performance on caucus night.
“Look, what do we know? Human beings come out a little bit less when they’re cold. I think this is gonna work to our advantage,” Ramaswamy said after an event in Sioux City. “Many of my supporters are not tepid supporters. The people who are supporting me are supporting me because they believe in the vision I’m offering for this country.”
On Tuesday, Ramaswamy again acknowledged the forecast for next week but said it shouldn’t stop his base.
“It’s going to be cold that night. But you know what, George Washington didn’t complain that it was too cold when he crossed the Delaware. And I don’t say that lightly,” Ramaswamy said.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also said he believes his supporters will show up to caucus for him no matter what, as long as it’s safe.
“I think that our supporters are in it, I think that they’re very passionate folks, and I think that they’re going to turn out, and so we’ll be in good shape, no matter how the weather happens,” DeSantis said at a virtual press conference Monday as he prepared to give his State of the State address in Florida. “But if it is really cold, I think we have the type of supporters who expect that and will brave the elements.”
Kush Desai, the Republican Party of Iowa’s communications director, noted that Iowans are used to harsh weather and have turned out to vote on previous caucus dates under less-than-ideal circumstances.
“We’ve had caucuses through rain, through snow, through all sorts of weather,” Desai said. “In the same way as Iowans are still going to keep going to work or go to school or go grocery shopping or whatever, it’s not something we’re too concerned about.”
Marc Korver, a 39-year-old casino security guard from Washington, Iowa, said being a Midwestern football fan has prepared him to brave the cold.
“I know how to operate and dress for cold weather,” said Korver, who also noted that he was close enough to his caucus location to walk if necessary.
Bob Klaus, a 76-year-old from Cedar Rapids, also isn’t expecting the low temperatures to keep caucusgoers home.
“Iowans are tough enough that they’re used to winters, and they’re committed enough to save this country from what we have going on now,” Klaus said. “I don’t think it’s going to be a factor. In fact, it might give more incentive just to prove to the rest of the country that we’re Iowa tough — not only Iowa nice, but Iowa tough.”
