Unexpected Victory for Goldstein? Unanswered Questions Two Weeks Post-Election

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Nearly two weeks after the election, several contests remain too close to call.

In accordance with due process, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is yet to declare a single seat, as it awaits the return of all postal votes by the 16 May deadline.

Despite this, election analysts are continuing to project seat outcomes based on the returned counts.

This week, predictions suggest that Labor’s David Smith has secured Bean in the ACT.

Despite a couple of late wins, the Coalition is trailing 41 seats to Labor’s 93 in the lower house predictions. It includes a tight Liberal victory for Terry Young in Queensland’s Longman and Mary Aldred claiming Monash in Victoria.

Redbridge Group director Simon Welsh told SBS News it is clear that the Liberals have been “repudiated by metro suburban Australia”.

Four seats are too close to call, with former Liberal MP Tim Wilson claiming victory in the Melbourne electorate of Goldstein, which may be up for a recount.

Here’s the latest state of play:

Why is Bradfield headed for a recount?

Bradfield in Sydney’s north shore was called by several election analysts for Liberal Gisele Kapterian earlier this week.

Kapterian was predicted to have won against independent Nicolette Boele by a few hundred votes.

However, as postal votes continue to be counted, it appears the historically safe Liberal seat is now in recount territory.

A woman in a turquoise shirt with silver hair smiles as she sits on a bench outside.

Independent Nicolette Boele is caught in a tight race for the seat of Bradfield in Sydney’s north. Source: AAP / Dan Himbrechts

The AEC recounts votes when the margin between the winner and runner-up is less than 100 votes.

Welsh said the latest figures have the difference at roughly 43 votes in favour of the LNP candidate, calling for an automatic recount.

Callwell in ‘unprecedented’ 13-horse race

Callwell in Melbourne’s north has emerged as “one of the most complex distributions of preferences we’ve ever done”, according to AEC acting deputy commissioner Kath Gleeson.

In a briefing to the media last week, the AEC revealed it had abandoned a three-candidate count due to the number of votes for independents, making it impossible to determine the final pairings.

Labor’s Basem Abdo comfortably leads with 30 per cent of the primary vote, Liberal’s Usman Ghani is on 15 per cent, and two independents are tightly contesting third place, on 12 and 11 per cent.

Typically, the lowest polling candidate is knocked out and their votes flow through to the other candidates.

However, with nine candidates holding 30 per cent of the vote between them, one of the two independents could overtake the Liberal candidate.

The tight margins mean the AEC will have to distribute every vote and preference to determine the winner in this seat.

Welsh said while it may take a while to figure out, it shouldn’t affect the outcome towards Labor.

What’s happening in Flinders?

Redbridge is on the verge of calling Flinders for the Liberals, with incumbent Zoe McKenzie leading independent Ben Smith by at least 5,000 votes.

A close contest between Smith and Labor’s Sarah Race forced the AEC to undertake a three-person count, with the flow of preferences securing McKenzie’s lead.

McKenzie’s second term win would bring the LNP’s lower house seats to 43.

Could there be an upset in Goldstein?

Liberal Tim Wilson claimed victory in the Melbourne bayside seat of Goldstein last week and currently leads by roughly 300 votes.

However, Welsh said this seat is “one to really watch” based on the heavy swing towards incumbent Zoe Daniel from international absentee votes.

A man sitting in the driver's seat of a blue van smiling with his arm out the window.

Liberal candidate Tim Wilson has prematurely celebrated a victory in Goldstein, which is now too close to call. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

“A win is definitely possible, with counts heavily breaking her [Zoe Daniel’s] way,” Welsh said.

Daniel has not conceded defeat in the seat, and as the margin tightens, this could be another electorate where a recount becomes necessary.

“We have clawed back from almost a 1,500 vote margin on Friday to 401 tonight,” Daniel said in a post to Facebook on Wednesday night.

“I have every finger crossed that a batch of international postal votes lands in the next 2 days, among a few other things that need to go our way.”

Redbridge moved Goldstein back from a predicted victory for Wilson to undecided on Thursday afternoon.

Senate showdown: Lambie vs Hanson

Two of the state’s six Senate seats are still in doubt, with Lambie facing competition from One Nation’s Lee Hanson, daughter of party leader Pauline Hanson.

However, in recent days, Lambie has shot ahead of Hanson, securing at least 25,026 of the required 35,071 votes for a Senate seat. Meanwhile, One Nation trails on 17,552 according to AEC’s latest Tally Room data.

Welsh predicts Lambie will secure the seat, but either way, he says the Senate will look very different, with independents holding less power.

Labor, which held 24 seats at the end of the 47th parliament, is on track to secure at least 28 of 76 Senate seats. Meanwhile, the Greens have won 11.

“Labor and the Greens are going to form a majority in the Senate,” Welsh said. “That gives Labor the capacity just to work with one party for the first time in a very long time.”

Labor could also negotiate with the Coalition, which has won 26 seats, to pass legislation without the crossbench.

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