Five teams, three places, one game to go.

Just three points separate the sides scrapping to seal a place in next season’s Champions League.

Manchester City could still slip out of contention. Newcastle and Aston Villa have destiny in their own hands. 

It promises to be a final-day frenzy but who will make it and who will miss out?

Mail Sport runs the rule over the teams in the mix to predict who is set for a place at European football’s top table.

3rd. Manchester City (68 points, +26 GD)

Opponent: Fulham (a) 

Form (most recent last): WWWDW

What they need: A point at Fulham should be enough to secure a top five finish due to their vastly superior goal difference over Aston Villa. If they lose and Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa all win, City will miss out.

Analysis: Can Kevin De Bruyne produce his magic one last time? Can Erling Haaland find his shooting boots when it matters?

Haaland has failed to score in his three games since his return, mustering just five shots – only two on target – despite a healthy number of touches in the box. He’s never been so shot-shy. 

It’s still six wins in eight for City but they cannot take Fulham for granted, even if they go in front. Only Liverpool have earned more points from losing positions this season. Their victory against Brentford was their fifth after being behind at half-time, equalling a Premier League record. Fulham have also set a new Premier League record this campaign with 17 goals from Marco Silva’s substitutes.

It helps when you’ve won each of your last 17 meetings with Fulham and are enjoying the longest winning run one English league side has had against another in history but with Haaland misfiring and the hosts having won five of their nine games against these top five-chasing teams, this suddenly feels trickier than expected.

Prediction: Draw

4th. Newcastle United (66pts, +22 GD)

Opponent: Everton (h) 

Form: LWDWL

What they need: A win will secure Newcastle’s place in the Champions League. A draw could be enough, but they will need Villa to fail to win at Old Trafford or Forest v Chelsea to end in a draw. A Villa defeat sees them qualify regardless.

Analysis: Alexander Isak has ‘a chance’ of returning from a groin injury to face Everton, said Eddie Howe this week. How their own chances of reaching the Champions League may depend on it.

Isak isn’t just a finisher, he is crucial to how Newcastle play and press. Only tireless Tottenham striker Dominic Solanke has pressured an opponent more times in the final third this season while no other out-and-out striker has created more chances for a team-mate.

They miss him when he’s not there. Newcastle have failed to win all four of the league matches he’s missed this season, including a draw with Sunday’s opponents Everton. The Magpies have won only four of the 12 he’s not started since the start of last term.

Newcastle are likely to need him if they are to break down an Everton side that’s conceded the lowest xG outside Chelsea, City and Arsenal since February.

Prediction: If Isak starts, Newcastle win

5th. Chelsea  (66pts, +20 GD) 

Opponent: Nottingham Forest (a) 

Form: WWWLW

What they need: A win at Nottingham Forest secures Champions League football. A draw would be enough if Aston Villa don’t win and Newcastle lose. Chelsea can still lose and make it but would need Villa to lose and a Newcastle defeat that’s at least three goals heavier than their own.

Analysis: A frustrated Enzo Maresca claimed this week that, if you look at the numbers for creating chances, Chelsea already ‘did enough’ to secure a place in the top five. Not if you don’t finish them off, you haven’t. Chelsea’s lack of ruthlessness is why their fate has come down to this.

Maresca’s men have created more big chances, more shots on target and racked up a higher Expected Goals (xG) tally than anyone bar Liverpool. Yet among their rivals for the top five they have missed more big chances than anyone and have the worst shot conversion rate. They cannot afford to be that profligate on Sunday, especially in a rampant City Ground with a striker with a scoring record as remarkable as Chris Wood leading the line for Forest.

The loss of Nicolas Jackson, their second top scorer who boasts a higher shot conversion rate that Palmer, could well affect them as gravely as when he got sent off against Newcastle. 

Prediction: Chelsea loss

6th. ASTON VILLA (66pts, +9 GD)

Opponent: Manchester United (a) 

Form: WLWWW

What they need: A win will be enough if either Newcastle or Chelsea drop points or if City lose. If they draw, they need Newcastle to lose.

Analysis: Who’d have thought a trip to Old Trafford on the final day of a season, knowing you need to win, would feel like such a gimme. Not just because Manchester United, yet more deflated after their dismal showing in the Europa League final, are so bad but because Aston Villa are the Premier League’s in-form team.

Since March, no side has won as many Premier League games (8), earned more points (24), conceded fewer goals (4) or kept as many clean sheets (6) as Emery’s side.

Their only defeats in that time came against Champions League finalists Paris Saint-Germain, FA Cup finalists Man City and winners Crystal Palace.

Villa have won just one of their last 26 final games of a season played away from home, last doing so against Chelsea in 2001-02, and only two of their last 29 games at Old Trafford but this is a United side that could be about to lose four games in a row for the first time since the 1970s.

Prediction: Villa win

7th. Nottingham Forest (65pts, +13 GD) 

Opponent: Chelsea (h) 

Form: WLDDW

What they need: Only a win will do for Nuno Espirito Santo’s men and even then they need Villa or Newcastle to drop points. Their goal difference is too bad for a draw to be enough.

Analysis: ‘One more,’ Forest talisman Morgan Gibbs-White roared to the fans after their victory at West Ham took their fate to the final day. Just one more game to try to make history.

Forest’s recent numbers are by far the worst of their rivals. In their last seven games: fewest goals, most conceded, fewest shots, most faced, lowest xG, highest conceded. Their overperformance in front of goal has regressed to the mean. All of that points to a Chelsea win.

Maresca’s side, however, could well play into Forest’s hands. Only Liverpool and City average more possession in games this season. No side loves the soak up pressure and spring a counter like Forest.

Only Southampton have made more errors leading to goals and shots than Chelsea this term. In the furnace of the City Ground, are Forest primed to take advantage? I think they just might.

Prediction: Forest win

Those results mean Manchester City cling on to a place in the Champions League despite three of the teams below them winning. 

Pep Guardiola’s side will be joined by Newcastle and Aston Villa.

However, it’s extra heartbreak for Nottingham Forest who secure a win on the final day but it still leaves them just short of a place in the top five while Chelsea also miss out.