NIGEL Farage would be the big winner if an election were held today with Reform winning 290 seats, according to a new poll.
Sir Keir Starmer and Labour are facing a crushing defeat and being ousted from Downing Street, the new data reveals.
The Prime Minister’s approval ratings have plummeted to a historic low, and if a General Election took place today, he would secure only 126 seats.
The new research is based on polling of more than 10,000 Britons by More In Common’s new MRP (Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) model.
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would be the main beneficiaries of Sir Keir’s troubles as they would be the biggest party on 290 seats.
Although this number falls short of the 326 seats required for a clear majority, the More In Common survey indicates that Farage’s rising party is “nearing the threshold for securing an outright majority.”
Labour, meanwhile, has been absolutely hammered in the projection – crashing to just 126 seats.
The poll data marks a disastrous loss of 285 from the landslide victory that put Sir Keir Starmer in No10 just a year ago.
It would leave the Labour party with fewer than half as many seats as Reform.
The survey, which has polled over 10,000 Brits, also paints a grim pictures for the Tories.
Kemi Badenoch and co are projected to sink to just 81 seats, down 40 from last year.
Pollsters revealed Reform poaching support in blue heartlands, snatching 59 former Tory seats.
Liberal Democrats are predicted to net 73 seats (up one seat) and the SNP are on 42 seats (up 33 seats).
Meanwhile, Starmer’s personal ratings have hit rock bottom.
The PM’s ratings have plunged to -43, the lowest ever recorded since he entered No.10.
The poll also shows most of Starmer’s Cabinet would be booted out based on public opinion.
This includes Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Sec Yvette Cooper and Health boss Wes Streeting.
The study shows that an impressive 223 Labour seats are likely to switch directly to Reform, including numerous seats in traditional Labour strongholds throughout the North and Wales.
Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said: “It is an unhappy birthday for the Prime Minister.
“His personal approval has hit an all-time low, while Britons blame him rather than his Chancellor for the welfare mess and think he has lost control of his party.
“Meanwhile our new MRP shows Reform UK as the big winners from the Government’s failures.
“Although we are a long way from an election and much will change between, Nigel Farage’s party are demonstrating that they are now close to the level where they could command an outright majority.
“Britain’s political landscape has transformed entirely from just a year ago.”
