A potential tropical system is forming off Florida’s coast, and officials warn it could bring heavy rain and flooding to millions of people soon.
A low-pressure system currently moves west across Florida and is anticipated to reach the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday. Forecasters indicate these conditions could contribute to its development into a named storm.
If the system continues to develop, it would become Tropical Storm Dexter, the fourth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Cities such as Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and regions along coastal Alabama are urged to prepare for potential street flooding, strong rip currents, and travel disruptions.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there is a 10 percent chance the system develops in the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance over the next seven days.
Rip current risks are also expected to climb by Thursday along the Alabama coast and Florida Panhandle.
In total, more than 23 million Americans live in areas that could be impacted by rain and possible storm surge, stretching from Florida’s Atlantic coast to southeastern Louisiana.
‘Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support some gradual development of this system,’ the NHC said Monday.
Officials say a low-pressure system is moving west across Florida and could reach the Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, where warmer waters might help it grow into a named storm
In cities like Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and coastal Alabama, residents are told to prepare for street flooding, dangerous swimming conditions, and disrupted travel
‘It is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the northeastern and north-central portions of the Gulf during the middle to latter part of this week,’ they added.
Flash flood risks are expected to rise later this week, especially across central and southern Florida, where some areas could see more than six inches of rain, possibly even higher in isolated spots.
According to AccuWeather meteorologists, the system has the best chance of strengthening between July 15 and 17 as it moves across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
However, forecasters warn that heavy rainfall is likely even if the system doesn’t become a named storm.
The National Weather Service (NWS) said: ‘Multiple rounds of heavy rain could lead to flooding concerns by mid-week, but especially in the latter part of this upcoming week. Expect several days with widespread showers and storms.’
Rip current risks are also expected to increase by Thursday along the Alabama coast and Florida Panhandle.
The disturbance began as a large area of low pressure off Florida’s east coast and is now moving west toward the northeastern Gulf. However, dry air in the region may limit how quickly it develops.
To officially become a tropical storm, the system would need to form a well-defined center and produce sustained winds of at least 40 mph. Meteorologists say it hasn’t reached that point yet but are continuing to monitor its progress closely.
According to AccuWeather meteorologists, the highest chance for this system to strengthen will fall between July 15 and 17, as it crosses the northeastern Gulf waters
Rip current risks are also expected to climb by Thursday along the Alabama coast and Florida Panhandle
This system follows three earlier named storms: Andrea, Barry, and Chantal.
Chantal hit North Carolina earlier this month, dumping more than 10 inches of rain in less than 24 hours and flooding streets and homes.
However, it never became a hurricane, but it still caused serious damage with the death of over six people.
Experts say this setup resembles the one that spawned Tropical Storm Chantal earlier this month, but with weaker wind shear, which may give this system a slightly better environment to develop as it drifts across the Gulf.
That is part of the reason meteorologists stress that even weak or unorganized systems can be dangerous. Rain, flooding, and coastal hazards do not require a major storm.
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted an above-average hurricane season in the Atlantic for 2025.
The agency projected between 13 and 19 named storms for the season, including six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major ones of Category 3 or higher.
It said there is a 70 percent chance the numbers will fall within those ranges.
Meteorologist Kristin Walla wrote in a post on X: ‘The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor an area of interest in the northeastern Gulf. It has a low chance of development over the next 7 days.’
‘This will be something for us to calmly watch but not necessarily worry about over the coming days,’ she added.
The NHC and local weather offices will keep tracking the system around the clock.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
In the Eastern Pacific, hurricane season started earlier on May 15 and also ends November 30.
Officials urge residents in Florida, Alabama, and along the Gulf Coast to stay alert, prepare for flash flooding, clear drains, and avoid beaches when rip current warnings are in place.
