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The newest findings related to Closing the Gap align with earlier evaluations, indicating that genuine progress happens when governments share control and decision-making with First Nations organizations.
However, despite the National Agreement on Closing the Gap, where all government levels have committed to collaborative decision-making, many areas remain unchanged, leading to sluggish improvements.
The latest update from the Productivity Commission found just four of the 19 targets were on track to be met by 2031.
Closing the Gap targets are part of a national agreement aimed at reducing First Nations peoples’ disadvantage.
The findings echo those of the Independent Review of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap, released in June, which found that governments are falling short in their obligations and need to urgently shift how they work in partnership with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people.
“Governments need to stop, take stock, and change their approach,” said Pat Turner, lead convenor of the Coalition of Peaks, which represents Aboriginal community-controlled organisations.
“We now have two independent reports telling us the same thing: where our organisations lead and are properly supported, we see progress.
“But when governments fail to meet their commitments, the gap doesn’t just remain, it widens.”
‘True partnership’ delivers results
The 2025 report shows several areas of progress, namely in preschool enrolment, employment rates and land and sea rights.
However, key targets, including adult imprisonment rates, children in out-of-home care, suicide rates and childhood development, are continuing to worsen.
While there have been improvements in Year 12 attainment, tertiary education levels and housing access, the measures were not on track to meet deadlines in six years’ time.
Catherine Liddle, the CEO of SNAICC – National Voice for our Children, noted that advancements have been observed in areas where collaboration between communities and the government has occurred.
She said the Closing the Gap figures showed there was a lack of follow-through from the government to address issues, rather than a lack of solutions.
“The update shows that when governments work in true partnership with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities, we see real change,” Ms Liddle said.
“Progress in areas like land rights and employment shows what’s possible when communities are empowered and governments step up.”
Ms Liddle added the same commitments should be shown to worsening targets, such as child protection and youth justice.
Indigenous Australians Minister Malarndirri McCarthy said work continued to turn around the targets.
“It is very concerning that we are still seeing outcomes worsening for incarceration rates, children in out-of home care and suicide,” she said.
“It’s important that state and territory governments all back in their commitments under the national agreement with actions that will help improve outcomes for First Nations people.”
Ms Turner said governments must hold themselves to account for the commitments they’d made under the national agreement.
“That requires smart investment, longer-term flexible funding, and full implementation of the four priority reforms – shifting power, not just policy,” she said.
“Without a real power shift, we’ll keep seeing the same patterns repeat, and our people will continue to pay the price.”
Limited progress by governments
Productivity commissioner Selwyn Button said the review showed the outcomes of the agreement were falling well short of what governments had committed to.
“What the outcomes in the agreement reflect most of all is the limited progress of governments in collectively acting on the priority reforms: sharing decision making and data with communities; strengthening the Aboriginal community controlled-sector and changing the way governments operate,” he said.
The 2025 Productivity Commission release presents a new year of data for 10 socio-economic targets and 26 supporting indicators, plus 16 supporting indicators reported for the first time.
It also includes a piece by Dr Scott Avery showing how the stories of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people can be told with the respectful use of data.
Among the nine socio-economic objectives with updated progress assessments, only the outcome for healthy birthweight (Target 2) has seen a change, showing that 89.2 percent of Indigenous newborns are at a healthy birthweight, indicating progress but not yet meeting the goal.
Young people
This year’s data takes a closer look at the outcomes and experiences of different population groups, including young people, people with disability and people living in remote areas.
The progress picture for young First Nations people is mixed.
While the target for preschool enrolment rates is on track to be met, a lower proportion of Indigenous children have been assessed as developmentally on track based on the Australian Early Development Census.
“The detailed information in this report shows that outcomes can’t easily be reduced to a number,” Commissioner Button said.
“The outcomes are all connected, each reflecting aspects of a broader system and the experiences of the people who have shared their stories.
“What the outcomes in the Agreement reflect most of all is the limited progress of governments in collectively acting on the Priority Reforms: sharing decision making and data with communities; strengthening the Aboriginal Community Controlled sector and changing the way governments operate.
“The independent review by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander experts and the PC’s 2024 Review reveal that the promised transformational change by governments is far from being realized.”
The release also highlights areas where a lack of data is continuing to hinder progress reporting.
Data is available on progress in 15 of the 19 targets and shows that nationally 10 of those are improving.
Outcomes are improving and targets on track:
- Preschool enrolments (Target 3)
- Employment (Target 8)
- Land mass subject to legal rights and interests (Target 15A)
- Sea waters subject to legal rights and interests (Target 15B).
Outcomes are improving but targets are not on track to be met:
- Life expectancy (Target 1)
- Healthy birthweights (Target 2)
- Year 12 or equivalent qualifications (Target 5)
- Tertiary educations (Target 6)
- Youth engagement (Target 7)
- Appropriately sized housing (Target 9A)
However, outcomes continue to worsen in four areas:
- Early childhood development (Target 4)
- Adult incarceration (Target 10)
- Children in out-of-home care (Target 12)
- Suicide (Target 14).
For youth detention (Target 11) there has been no change from the baseline data however outcomes have been worsening since 2022.
States and territories differ
The Productivity Commission’s report also shows outcomes differ significantly between states and territories, and identifies poorer outcomes in remote Australia.
New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the ACT all report improvement for most targets.
In contrast, the Northern Territory has 15 targets with data and of these, only seven are improving.
Aboriginal community-controlled organisation Children’s Ground, which operates in the NT, said the latest data adds to a growing body of evidence that the National Agreement is falling short of delivering structural reform.
Children’s Ground chair William Tilmouth said the data sits alongside recent disturbing developments in the NT: spithoods are being reintroduced for children in detention, rates of self-harm among children in detention have increased and governments are not responding meaningfully to coronial recommendations that reflect long-standing issues raised repeatedly through earlier inquests and public reviews.
“This reality is killing our people and our culture,” he said.
“Our children continue to be locked up and our families put under enormous stress.
We are years into this agreement, and the pattern is clear: governments are choosing to maintain systems that harm our children and families.
Children’s Ground urged all governments to move away from top-down systems that continue to fail, abandon punitive policies and reactive responses that cause further harm.
“This is a moment for government to show leadership, commitment to reform and to create meaningful partnerships with community for long term change,” Mr Tilmouth said.
Ms Turner said it was important for Australians to understand that Aboriginal community-controlled organisations are not fringe services, but rather trusted, place-based service providers designed by and for Indigenous people.
“They succeed because they are grounded in culture, local knowledge and accountability to our communities,” she said.
“We’re not asking for special treatment. We’re asking for a fair share.
“When we get that, we deliver.”
