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After experiencing multiple setbacks and postponements, President Donald Trump’s broad and sweeping tariffs policy was initiated on Thursday, just minutes past midnight ET, accelerating his plan to overhaul global trade.
Most goods imported into the U.S. will now incur a standard 10% tariff, causing the overall average effective tariff rate to exceed 17% — the highest level since the Great Depression in 1935 — with elevated duties specifically targeting major U.S. trading partners, as reported by the nonpartisan Yale Budget Lab think tank.
A multitude of goods will be affected. Tariffs will apply to items ranging from European Union home appliances and Japanese automobiles to food, furniture, and toys from China, as well as televisions from South Korea. Excluded are selected oil and gas imports, some smartphones, and certain products under an existing trade deal with Canada and Mexico.
Together, the duties are the most significant move yet by a president set on tilting the global economy even more in favor of the United States.
Trump was online to celebrate the moment.
“It’s midnight! Billions of dollars in tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America!” he said in an all-caps post on Truth Social.
Currently, the tariffs are largely impacting the U.S. economy. As taxes levied on imports by the federal government, tariffs typically drive up costs, though there is ongoing debate among economists on whether businesses or consumers ultimately absorb these higher prices.
According to Yale’s Budget Lab, the tariffs’ inflationary effects are expected to cost an average household up to $2,400 this year. A significant impact is predicted in the apparel sector, with consumers seeing a 40% increase in footwear prices and a 38% rise in clothing costs in the short term, as retailers relying on imports from South and Southeast Asia adjust supply chains or face increased costs.
Thursday is not the end of Trump’s trade offensive, either.
Trump mentioned to CNBC on Tuesday his ongoing intention to increase import taxes on pharmaceutical products and semiconductors. Presently, only about 25% of facilities producing critical drug ingredients for the U.S. are domestically based, resulting in a $116 billion trade deficit with other countries. As for semiconductors, the U.S. imports approximately $40 billion worth, which may also include chips made domestically, sent abroad, and repackaged in finished products.
Trump has also shown continued willingness to ratchet up duty levels at a moment’s notice. On Wednesday, he hiked the tariff rate for India to 50% over the nation’s purchases of Russian oil, which he said was allowing Russia to continue to finance its war in Ukraine. Brazil, too, now faces 50% duties as a result of Trump’s displeasure with its treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally who has been detained on coup charges.
Trump also told CNBC he could raise the European Union’s tariff level to 35% from 15% if it reneges on an investment commitment. Taken together, the 27-nation bloc is the largest U.S. trading partner.
The Trump administration continues to insist tariffs are working, pointing to billions raised in new monthly revenues for the U.S. government. The White House also notes that nations have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars in investments, though no details about how that money will be spent have been released. Stock indexes have also set all-time highs.
“The markets have seen what we’re doing and celebrated,” Kevin Hassett, director of Trump’s National Economic Council, said Sunday on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”
Market analysts say those gains have been largely driven by tech and bets on artificial intelligence, offsetting growing signs of weakness elsewhere, like a slowing labor market and softer consumer spending.
Overall, the U.S. economy as a whole now appears to be on much shakier ground than at the start of the year. Price growth has continued to pick up, while employment growth in manufacturing — the sector Trump and his allies have said would benefit most from the tariffs — has flatlined.
Some of that may also be attributable to elevated interest rates. But even non-manufacturing sectors are feeling the pinch.
Comments cited in the Institute for Supply Chain Management’s survey of service-providing businesses for July, released this week, were filled with concerns about tariffs.
“Anticipation of the final tariff impacts is resulting in delayed planning for next fiscal year purchases,” an accommodation and food-services firm said.
A health services firm said: “Tariffs are causing additional costs as we continue to purchase equipment and supplies. Though we need to continue with these purchases, the cost is significant enough that we are postponing other projects to accommodate these cost changes.”
The U.S. unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2%, still considered low — but most economists say that is partly a function of Trump’s immigration crackdown, which has shrunk the overall labor force. The unemployment rate among native-born Americans reached a pandemic-era high last month of 4.7%.
Business leaders are shaken up, too. Gartner Research said this week that its measure of CEO confidence has fallen at one of the fastest paces ever to recessionary levels, with 78% of top executives indicating they’re implementing cost-cutting measures to safeguard performance. On Tuesday, equipment manufacturers Caterpillar and Eaton both reported significant profit hits from tariffs that constrained financial results amid resilient demand.
“With the prospect of higher tariffs, many companies implemented strong cost saving measures,” Gartner said. “Even companies not directly impacted by tariffs began implementing these measures.”
There remains an outside chance that the courts will strike the tariffs down. A group of small businesses has sued the Trump administration challenging its authority to impose tariffs under emergency powers. A trade court agreed in late May, but Trump’s lawyers obtained an injunction to keep the tariffs he had already imposed in effect. All of Trump’s tariffs on individual trading partners have been deployed using the law, which faces additional challenges from other suits.
Tariffs he has imposed on specific goods, like steel and copper, have been issued under a separate authority.
In April, a bipartisan group of senators passed a bill to assert Congress’ authority as the only body allowed to impose tariffs, but the measure stalled in the House.
A growing chorus of analysts is raising the prospect of stagflationary conditions, in which price growth increases while the job market weakens.
“Economic activity and job growth are sputtering under the weight of higher tariffs, increasing inflation and rising economic policy and trade uncertainty,” analysts with BMO said in a recent note to clients.
As higher tariff rates continue to creep up, stagflation and even a recession become likelier, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, told NBC News last week.
“I think the economic fallout from the tariffs is now obvious: higher inflation and a struggling economy,” he said.