Last week, President Trump launched an active campaign to bring an end to the conflict triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While it’s true that the war has resulted in the tragic loss of over two million lives—killed, injured, missing, or abducted—it seems futile to expect peace unless both parties see no merit in continuing the fight. Unfortunately, that realization seems distant in the context of Ukraine.
To review the bidding.
Trump extended a warm welcome to Putin at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson. Though it offered a good photo opportunity for both leaders, the reported successes were somewhat exaggerated. Notably, there were no joint press statements, and Putin controlled most of the conversation afterward, leaving Trump with little more than a superficial gesture.
Contrast this with Monday’s more cordial meeting in Washington, where Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and several European leaders, including U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and others, gathered. The interaction sparked some hope that a face-to-face meeting between Zelensky and Putin—and possibly a subsequent one involving Trump—could occur. There were discussions about NATO offering “strong security guarantees” with references akin to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which implies that an attack on one member is akin to an attack on all.
However, the optimistic interpretations from discussions post-Alaska and Washington meetings did not gain Russia’s endorsement, according to Russian authorities.
No NATO Peacekeepers
Russia dismissed the proposal of European troops acting as peacekeepers, insisting instead on their involvement in ensuring Ukraine’s security and in the decision-making process regarding any breaches.
Russian negotiators pushed for an even more ambitious clause, suggesting all guarantor countries, including Russia, must agree on military involvement if Ukraine were attacked in the future. This condition would essentially give Moscow the power to attack Ukraine again while obstructing any military support for Kyiv.
In case you are thinking you’ve heard something like that before, you have. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum also made Russia a guarantor of Ukraine’s political independence, which was part of the same agreement where Russia pledged to “refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence” of Ukraine.
Russia wants any peacekeeping troops to be Third World types provided under the aegis of the UN Security Council. This would give Russia a double veto in preventing future fighting, as it would control the decision on the ground and have a veto in the UNSC. Even that seems to have changed, as just yesterday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov vetoed the idea of any foreign troops in Ukraine.
Speaking about the possibility of foreign troops being deployed on Ukrainian territory, the Russian foreign minister stated that Moscow has always viewed this as unacceptable. “And I hope they understand that this would be absolutely unacceptable for Russia and for all sensible political forces in Europe,” Lavrov said.
This would not seem to apply to North Korean troops fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine.
No Putin-Zelensky Meeting
The underlying problem with this is that it is rank stupidity to expect Zelensky and Putin to meet before there is a peace agreement to sign. That isn’t the way negotiations happen. The issues that have to be resolved are immense. For instance, any surrender of land by Ukraine requires the approval of parliament and a national referendum. To make issues more complicated, Putin does not agree that Zelensky is the lawful president of Ukraine. This is Lavrov as quoted in TASS:
The issue of the legitimacy of the signatory from the Ukrainian side will need to be resolved in the event of reaching an agreement with Kiev, Lavrov continued. “Our president has repeatedly said that he is ready to meet, including with Mr. Zelensky, provided that all issues that require consideration at the highest level will be well-developed, and experts and government ministers will prepare appropriate recommendations. And, of course, on the condition that when, I hope, it comes to signing future agreements, the issue of the legitimacy of the person who will sign these agreements for the Ukrainian side will be resolved,” he explained.
Yesterday, Lavrov gave an interview which is translated by the Financial Times’s Christopher Miller.
I think the chances of a meeting between Zelensky and Putin before end of August is exactly zero. After that, extremely slim to none. A Putin-Zelensky summit is a fantasy of Trump’s. He appears to have misunderstood Putin or been misled by him. Lavrov said today,
“Putin… pic.twitter.com/gw6fyAh775
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 20, 2025
I think the chances of a meeting between Zelensky and Putin before end of August is exactly zero. After that, extremely slim to none. A Putin-Zelensky summit is a fantasy of Trump’s. He appears to have misunderstood Putin or been misled by him. Lavrov said today,
“Putin confirmed his readiness to continue direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations that took place in Istanbul.” And that Putin was prepared to “raise the level of delegations.” But that is not Putin saying he is ready to meet Zelensky.
No Ukrainian Sovereignty
Russia has long demanded that Ukraine not be allowed to join the EU or NATO. This still seems to be in effect.
Lavrov as bad cop:
– any Putin-Zelensky meeting has to be “prepared extremely carefully”
– Russia will only agree to a deal that “respects” its security interests
– The “foundations of Ukraine’s recognition as an independent state would disappear” if it aligns with the west pic.twitter.com/j3nxRx1LRL
— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 19, 2025
Lavrov as bad cop:
– any Putin-Zelensky meeting has to be “prepared extremely carefully”
– Russia will only agree to a deal that “respects” its security interests
– The “foundations of Ukraine’s recognition as an independent state would disappear” if it aligns with the west
Bottom Line
Russia has publicly disavowed literally every bit of progress that was alleged to have been made during and following the Trump-Putin meeting. That leads to a number of possibilities, among which are:
- Witkoff is, as the Russians hint, misleading Trump about his conversations with Russia.
- Trump is gaslighting us and/or himself about the progress for whatever reason.
- Putin is lying to Trump and Witkoff and discrediting them in public because he has no interest in ending the war and wants Trump to go away.
The best we can say is that we are no closer to peace in Ukraine than we were on January 20, 2025.
Is Something Changing?
Trump has given Putin multiple deadlines to show an interest in ending the war. The last one passed on August 8, if we are counting from the July 28 “10 to 12” day deadline, or we are 13 days away if we are counting from the July 14 “50 day” deadline.
Thursday morning, President Trump’s Truth Social account had this announcement:
It is very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without attacking an invaders country. It’s like a great team in sports that has a fantastic defense, but is not allowed to play offense. There is no chance of winning! It is like that with Ukraine and Russia. Crooked and grossly incompetent Joe Biden would not let Ukraine FIGHT BACK, only DEFEND. How did that work out? Regardless, this is a war that would have NEVER happened if I were President – ZERO CHANCE. Interesting times ahead!!! President DJT
What makes this message so unusual is that Trump is implying Ukraine could win by attacking, and he calls Russia the “invaders” when he refused to sign onto a G7 statement in February labeling Russia the “aggressors.” He has also blamed Ukraine for starting the war.
This seems to give Ukraine the green light to hit Russian economic targets. It also carried the same sense of frustration as did an earlier statement to Zelensky to make Russia “feel the pain;” see Trump Tells Zelensky to Make Russia ‘Feel the Pain,’ but What Does Any of It Mean? – RedState.
Does this mean that he’s tiring of being Charlie Brown, kicking the football held by Putin’s Lucy?
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