Deaths in one of the world’s most popular tourist destinations surged in 2023, and scientists have finally figured out why.  

In August 2023, six wildfires swept across Hawaii’s Maui island, devastating areas such as the resort town of Lāhainā. These fires resulted in 102 fatalities, destroyed nearly 3,000 structures, and burned over 2,000 acres of land.

Researchers at NYU Grossman calculated excess deaths for the fires, or how many more people died in Maui than what’s expected under normal circumstances, by comparing the five-year average for deaths in August to the number recorded in the same month in 2023.

Overall, they said there was a 67 percent spike in excess deaths in that month, or 86 more fatalities than expected, with 205 deaths recorded compared to the 123 expected.

In the week of August 19, they found that deaths spiked 367 percent alone, with 67 more deaths than expected.

Researchers said the rise was likely due to burns and asphyxiation from the fires, but also attributed the increase to overstretched emergency services and blocked roads leading to problems reaching patients.

They added that there may have been a drop in deaths from other causes, such as car crashes, at the time of the fires. Their study also only considered one month, whereas the official toll may have included fatalities that occurred later.

Michelle Nakatsuka, a medical student who led the study, said: ‘Wildfires can cause a measurable, population-wide increase in mortality, beyond what is captured in official counts.

The Lahaina wildfire in August 2023 was the deadliest in America’s history, with official tolls estimating it killed 102 people (file photos of the aftermath of the fires in Lahaina in 2023)

The above graph shows excess deaths, or the number of deaths above the number that was expected for a particular year

‘This suggests the true toll of the Lāhainā wildfire was even broader than previously understood.’

She added: ‘It also points to the need for prevention strategies that go beyond reactive wildfire control. As native Hawaiians, the co-first authors are especially hopeful that wildfire mitigation strategies will center perspectives, including the restoration of traditional agroecological systems.’

Lāhainā’s wildfires may have been sparked by downed power cables and then driven by drought conditions on the island.

They were also fueled by high winds, which spread the flames and knocked down telephone lines, undermining efforts to warn people of the spreading flames.

Researchers also found that the proportion of deaths in non-medical settings, such as homes and public places, rose to 80 percent in August 2023 compared to the average of 68 percent, meaning more people than what is typical were dying in places other than hospitals.

Of the 205 deaths, 140, or 70 percent, were in people aged 65 years or over, and 125, or 62.5 percent, were among males.

The analysis was based on data from CDC Wonder, which compiles data on death reports from each state.

The researchers wrote in the study: ‘Notably, this level of fire-related mortality is unprecedented in recent history.

Six active fires torched through Maui and Big Island in August 2023

‘Annual fire deaths were suppressed in all other years from 2018 to 2024, indicating counts below 10 and underscoring the exceptional mortality toll of the wildfire. 

‘While the official count reflects confirmed fire-related fatalities, our model-based estimate captures broader mortality impacts during the same period, including potentially unclassified or indirectly related deaths.’

CDC Wonder does not record the causes of deaths, leaving researchers unable to say what proportion of the fatalities were directly due to the fires.

About three million visitors went to Maui every year before the fires, the local tourism board says, with the industry generating eight out of every 10 dollars earned on the island.

Hawaii is among the most visited states in the US, famed for its stunning beaches and warm climate.

The harm of wildfires goes beyond solely death in the immediate vicinity, with blazes releasing smoke that can harm people hundreds or even thousands of miles away.

Taking in smoke from wildfires can irritate the airways and cause trouble breathing for many, particularly those with underlying respiratory problems.

In serious cases, it can also raise the levels of inflammation in the blood and cause clots to form that may block a blood vessel and cause a stroke or heart attack.

Wildfires can also have major mental health impacts, with those who live near the flames left with negative mental effects after losing their homes, loved ones, or source of livelihood.