This summer, numerous international students informed the University of Central Missouri that they were unable to obtain a visa, with many facing challenges even securing an interview for one.
Even though demand was just as high as ever, half as many new international graduate students showed up for fall classes compared to last year.
This decline poses a financial challenge for Central Missouri, a smaller public university that operates on a tight budget with an endowment of merely $65 million. International students typically contribute to nearly a quarter of its tuition income.
“With fewer international students providing revenue, we’re less able to subsidize domestic students,” explained Roger Best, president of the university.
The potential drop in international student numbers has caused concern for colleges across the U.S. Institutions with large international student populations and smaller endowments lack the financial buffer to shield them from significant tuition revenue losses.
According to an Associated Press analysis, international students make up at least 20% of the enrollment at over 100 colleges with endowments of less than $250,000 per student. This includes many small Christian colleges as well as large universities such as Northeastern and Carnegie Mellon.
The full impact on enrollment won’t be apparent until the fall. Some forecasts predict a potential decline of up to 40%, which would significantly affect college budgets and the broader U.S. economy.
International students face new scrutiny on several fronts
As part of a broader effort to reshape higher education, President Donald Trump has pressed colleges to limit their numbers of international students and heightened scrutiny of student visas. His administration has moved to deport foreign students involved in pro-Palestinian activism, and new student visa appointments were put on hold for weeks as it ramped up vetting of applicants’ social media.
On Wednesday, the Department of Homeland Security said it will propose a rule that would put new limits on the time foreign students can stay in the U.S.
The policies have introduced severe financial instability for colleges, said Justin Gest, a professor at George Mason University who studies the politics of immigration.
Foreign students are not eligible for federal financial aid and often pay full price for tuition — double or even triple the in-state rate paid by domestic students at public universities.
“To put it more dollars and cents-wise, if an international student comes in and pays $80,000 a year in tuition, that gives universities the flexibility to offer lower fees and more scholarship money to American students,” Gest said.
A Sudanese student barely made it to the US for the start of classes
Ahmed Ahmed, a Sudanese student, nearly didn’t make it to the U.S. for his freshman year at the University of Rochester.
The Trump administration in June announced a travel ban on 12 countries, including Sudan. Diplomatic officials assured Ahmed he could still enter the U.S. because his visa was issued before the ban. But when he tried to board a flight to leave for the U.S. from Uganda, where he stayed with family during the summer, he was turned away and advised to contact an embassy about his visa.
With the help of the University of Rochester’s international office, Ahmed was able to book another flight.
At Rochester, where he received a scholarship to study electrical engineering, Ahmed, 19, said he feels supported by the staff. But he also finds himself on edge and understands why other students might not want to subject themselves to the scrutiny in the U.S., particularly those who are entirely paying their own way.
“I feel like I made it through, but I’m one of the last people to make it through,” he said.
Colleges are taking steps to blunt the impact
In recent years, international students have made up about 30% of enrollment at Central Missouri, which has a total of around 12,800 students. In anticipation of the hit to international enrollment, Central Missouri cut a cost-of-living raise for employees. It has pushed off infrastructure improvements planned for its campus and has been looking for other ways to cut costs.
Small schools — typically classified as those with no more than 5,000 students — tend to have less financial flexibility and will be especially vulnerable, said Dick Startz, an economics professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara.
Lee University, a Christian institution with 3,500 students in Tennessee, is expecting 50 to 60 international students enrolled this fall, down from 82 the previous school year, representing a significant drop in revenue for the school, said Roy Y. Chan, the university’s director of graduate studies.
The school already has increased tuition by 20% over the past five years to account for a decrease in overall enrollment, he said.
“Since we’re a smaller liberal arts campus, tuition cost is our main, primary revenue,” Chan said, as opposed to government funding or donations.
The strains on international enrollment only add to distress for schools already on the financial brink.
Colleges around the country have been closing as they cope with declines in domestic enrollment, a consequence of changing demographics and the effects of the pandemic. Nationwide, private colleges have been closing at a rate of about two per month, according to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association.
The number of high school graduates in the U.S. is expected to decline through 2041, when there will be 13% fewer compared to 2024, according to projections from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.
“That means that if you lost participation from international students, it’s even worse,” Startz said.
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