A deeply split French parliament is on the verge of dismissing its second prime minister within a year through a no-confidence vote on Monday. This action is set to throw the nation into political turmoil as it stands perilously close to a severe economic downturn.

The government’s near-certain breakdown coincides with French President Emmanuel Macron’s declining approval, which has hit an all-time low. Currently, 77 percent of the population disapprove of his performance, and 64 percent are advocating for his resignation.

Members of the French parliament will engage in a debate regarding a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Francois Bayrou at Paris’s Assemblée Nationale. Bayrou has been in office for only nine months, and this decision could lead France to appoint its fifth prime minister in less than two years.

Bayrou caught even his supporters by surprise when he called for a confidence vote to resolve the longstanding conflict over his austerity budget. This budget outlines almost 44 billion euros (£38.19 billion) in cost reductions to address France’s mounting debt.

He has cautioned that failing to support his budget could lead to a ‘high risk of disorder and chaos,’ depicting the country’s escalating national debt as ‘a critical and hazardous period – a time fraught with uncertainty and upheaval.’

But Marine Le Pen, the leader of the hard-right National Rally party, said Bayrou was committing ‘political suicide’. 

All opposition parties have signaled their intent to vote against his minority government. This makes it highly unlikely for Bayrou to secure the necessary support, as he requires a majority of the 577 MPs in the National Assembly.

Bayrou will become the second French prime minister in succession to have suffered such a fate after Michel Barnier was ejected in December after only three months in office.

Bayrou, the sixth prime minister under Macron since 2017, has given no indication in days of TV interviews that he expects to survive the vote.

Instead, he has asked: ‘Has our country understood the seriousness of the situation it finds itself in?’

He is expected to address parliament in a final bid for support from 1300 GMT with the vote awaited from 1700 GMT.

After the vote, Macron will face one of the most critical decisions of his presidency: appointing the seventh prime minister of his mandate to thrash out a compromise, or call snap elections in a bid to have a more accommodating parliament.

The president is spearheading European efforts to end Russia’s war on Ukraine, boosting his international profile.

But polling at home does not make pretty reading, and he is forbidden from standing a third time in 2027.

According to a poll by Odoxa-Backbone for Le Figaro newspaper, 64 percent of French want Macron to resign rather than name a new prime minister, a move he has explicitly ruled out.

Some 77 percent of people do not approve of his work, Macron’s worst ever such rating, according to an Ifop poll for the Ouest-France daily.

Addressing the crisis after an international summit on Ukraine, Macron called on French political forces on Thursday to demonstrate ‘responsibility’ and ensure ‘stability’.

‘The reshaping of the world is changing many things for our Europe. In this context, France must continue to move forward,’ he said.

But alongside political upheavals, France is also facing social tension.

A left-wing collective calling itself ‘Block Everything’ is calling for a day of action on September 10 and trade unions have urged workers to strike on September 18.

There is no guarantee an election would result in any improvement in the fortunes of Macron’s centre-right bloc in parliament.

But there are signs that the president could be eyeing cooperation with the Socialist Party (PS), a one time giant of French politics that has fallen into the doldrums in recent years.

At a meeting Tuesday of the centrist parties that support him, Macron urged them to ‘work with the Socialists’, a participant said, asking not to be named. All those present were opposed to snap elections, the person added.

Socialist leader Olivier Faure has made no secret of his readiness to take the post of prime minister, even producing his own draft budget.

But Socialist backing would not automatically attract support from other left-wing forces.

‘It would be workable if the Socialist Party says: “We’re overthrowing the alliance and governing with the central bloc,”‘ said a close associate of Macron, adding that for now the president is keeping his cards close to his chest.

The government’s collapse looks set to deepen France’s paralysis at a critical time for Europe, which is seeking unity in the face of Russia’s war against Ukraine, an increasingly dominant China and trade tensions with the United States.

The turmoil also threatens France’s ability to rein in its debt, with the risk of further credit downgrades looming as bond spreads – a gauge of the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt – widen.

France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year’s deficit nearly double the EU’s 3% limit of economic output and public debt at 113.9% of GDP.