The new Gaza peace framework proposed by President Donald Trump has the potential to change regional dynamics. However, experts caution that if Hamas retains its weapons and authority, the situation might only be a temporary halt before the group resumes conflict.
Dr. Michael Milshtein, a leading expert on Hamas at the Moshe Dayan Forum of Tel Aviv University, indicates that any plan assuming Hamas will dissolve misunderstands the group’s true nature.
“Words like peace and coexistence are not realistic,” he told Fox News Digital. According to him, Hamas leaders are unwilling to accept an international mandate or a trusteeship akin to Tony Blair’s approach.
He stated, “They might allow a superficial Palestinian administration to manage daily activities, but Hamas will continue to influence from the background, similar to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon.”
Tamir Heiman, a former Israeli intelligence chief, outlined three potential scenarios for the period after hostages are released and fighting eases. Ideally, Hamas would engage with the formation of an alternative technocratic government backed by international police forces. If Hamas declines, Israel might still delegate limited security control to an international force “in distinct sectors, progressively,” he suggested.
A terrorist from Hamas taking part in a military parade. (Reuters/Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/File Photo)
The third scenario — and, in his view, the most likely — is that no foreign force steps in.
“The IDF would stay positioned along what we refer to as the yellow line, operating as a security buffer similar to southern Lebanon,” Heiman stated. This model allows Israel operational freedom, while Hamas keeps basic weaponry but loses access to rockets and missile production facilities.
“It’s not peace,” he added, “but it’s managed security.”
Taken together, the analysts paint a cautious picture. The Trump team has aligned regional interests and generated rare cooperation among Arab capitals, they say, but sustaining that unity through disarmament and reconstruction will be the true measure of success.
If Hamas continues to exist as a hybrid militia-government, experts warn, the world may soon discover that the “peace” is only an intermission between rounds — a pause mistaken for an ending.
