Truckers Face 40% Decline in Baja-California Deliveries by End of 2025: Economic and Supply Chain Implications

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In a challenging year for the trucking industry in the San Diego-Tijuana border region, companies are bracing for a significant downturn. It is projected that there will be a 40 percent reduction in the number of cargo loads transported to the United States by the end of the year.

Alfonso Millán Chávez, representing the Northern Baja California Chamber of Freight Transporters, highlighted the unusual situation this year. Historically, October and November are peak months for deliveries between Mexico and the U.S. However, this year is proving to be an exception.

“As transport companies, as we approach the end of the year, it’s evident that this has been a challenging year for us,” noted Millán Chávez.

For context, data from Mexico’s Secretary of the Economy reveals a stark contrast in trade activities. In May of the previous year, $4.4 billion worth of goods were shipped from Mexico to the U.S. This year, that figure has dropped to $3.5 billion. Millán Chávez indicated that this downward trend has persisted throughout 2025.

Millán Chávez says the rest of 2025 followed a similar pattern.

“This just proves we’ve had a very complicated year.” he said.

He blames the slowdown on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their implementation.

“All they are doing is discouraging investment, all it’s done is generate restlessness in commerce along the border,” Millán Chávez said.

Millán Chávez believes the pattern to continue next year.

“We’ve had a drop in volume in truck crossings, let’s hope in 2026 we see a recovery, we’re hoping for a spike in business to reach our budgetary goals next year.”