Subscribe to the White House Watch newsletter at no cost.

Donald Trump has consistently shown a keen interest in intervening in Venezuelan affairs. Toward the end of last year, his administration assembled a naval presence in the Caribbean, launched strikes on small boats accused of drug trafficking to the United States, enforced a near-blockade, and took control of Venezuelan oil tankers. Concurrently, a vigorous public-relations effort was underway, portraying Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, as an illegitimate leader running a “narco-cartel”.

Thus, while the U.S. offensive against the oil-rich, authoritarian regime and the capture of Maduro and his wife were indeed remarkable, they were not entirely unforeseen. What truly caught observers off guard was Trump’s nonchalant announcement that the U.S. would temporarily “manage” Venezuela, coupled with his bold assertion that American oil companies would step in to dominate the oil sector.

This move, perhaps more than any other during his contentious second term, highlights the audacious and self-serving tendencies of Trump’s America. Critics of the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq often claimed, albeit somewhat inaccurately, that it was primarily about oil. In contrast, this intervention appears to genuinely focus on oil, given Venezuela’s possession of the world’s largest reserves.

As Trump embarks on the second year of his second term, his stance is unmistakable: his administration feels unfettered by the traditional post-World War II international norms and laws, ready to intervene almost arbitrarily within its hemisphere, and potentially beyond. The overt breach of a major South American state’s sovereignty delivers a grim warning globally. This action will likely cement the belief that America under Trump is not only hypocritical but is also willing to demonstrate that might makes right. There was no effort to obtain congressional approval for this operation, nor was there any attempt to secure support from the UN, despite the anticipated futility of such an endeavor.

Authoritarian regimes might find encouragement in Trump’s actions. While it might be an oversimplification, as some critics suggest, to claim this will embolden China concerning Taiwan, there is little doubt that it complicates Western efforts to rally the global south against Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. Regarding Venezuela, while few lament the downfall of Maduro, Trump seems to show scant interest in the country’s future.

For more than a quarter of a century Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chávez ran a brutal and corrupt system. The economy has imploded. Opposition leaders fled across the borders, as did as many as 8mn Venezuelans. The overthrow of a tyranny is always risky whether it happens from within or without, and the operation to seize Maduro does seem to have been a textbook case of planning and execution. Many Venezuelans will be hoping it could be a turning point after years of misery.

Yet it is unclear that the White House even wants wholesale regime change. Maduro presided over a corrupt clique, backed by the army, which is still in place. Many in the opposition already fear the “new” order will be very like the old one, just with a different face. In a triumphalist press conference, Trump airily dismissed the Nobel peace laureate and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as lacking support. He made no mention of new elections nor of Edmundo González Urrutia, who is widely seen as the true winner of the heavily rigged 2024 presidential race.

The US has learnt to its cost in recent decades the perils of toppling tyrants without a plan for the day after. It gives every appearance of having done the same again. In pursuing his America First agenda, a hubristic Trump appears untroubled. America and the world will regret his latest show of recklessness.