Winston Churchill once cautioned that “an appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.” Over the past year, European leaders may have taken this warning to heart as they’ve attempted to placate President Donald Trump amid escalating tensions. They have largely overlooked his aggressive policies, which include a global trade war, threats of annexation against Canada, military actions in Iran, and the controversial capture of the Venezuelan president. However, it seems inevitable, as Churchill foresaw, that this strategy would eventually backfire, with Trump now turning his focus squarely on Europe.

What once seemed like an offhand remark by Trump in 2019 about purchasing Greenland from Denmark has now become a pressing issue. The recent imposition of additional tariffs on European countries unless they concede to American demands reveals a serious intent to annex the autonomous Danish territory. Officially, the move is portrayed as a measure to prevent Greenland from falling under Chinese or Russian sway. In a letter to Norway’s Prime Minister, Trump emphasized, “The world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland.” However, with a U.S. military presence already established on the island, coupled with NATO troops, it seems likely that the island’s rich deposits of rare earth elements are also a significant motivating factor for the Trump administration.

The potential for conflict is real, and Europe must brace itself for the worst-case scenario, which could mean preparing for a military confrontation with the United States over Greenland. Such a conflict would undoubtedly spell disaster for NATO, an institution that has safeguarded peace for nearly 77 years, and one with which I have a personal connection, having served as deputy supreme allied commander in Europe after my military career.

At the same time, Hegseth reiterated Trump’s demand that Nato allies increase their defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP, up from the then 2 per cent target, and added that Europe must provide the ‘overwhelming’ majority of funding for Ukraine in its war against Russia. That conference should have sounded alarm bells across Europe. Political leaders should have prepared immediately for a world in which the US was no longer on our side. The truth is that since Nato was formed in 1949, Britain has allowed its military arsenal to slip towards oblivion. In 1989, the British Army could count on around 156,000 soldiers. By 2010, that number had fallen towards 110,000. Today, it is closer to 70,000. In the 1990s, Britain bought 400 Challenger 2 tanks. Today, we have just over 200 with – staggeringly – just 25 deemed battle-ready.

Similarly, while the Air Force has around 130 fighter jets at its disposal, the US Air Force has closer to 1,800. While other countries such as China, Russia and the US have continued to spend money on defence, fixing the roof while the sun shines, Britain and the rest of Europe have become fat and happy on welfare handouts. We did this assuming that the post-Second World War world order would hold and that America would for ever underwrite security for the West. As Trump has made clear again and again, that is no longer the case, and Europe has been left defenceless. Pictured: Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and her Norwegian counterpart Espen Barth Eide.

Keir Starmer’s immediate response to this new dawn has been – like most of Europe – to try to appease Donald Trump. The President was offered an unprecedented State visit during which he was wined and dined at Windsor Castle; and there was no more telling image of Europe’s desperation than that of its leaders sitting like schoolchildren in front of Trump in the Oval Office in August last year. Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Nazi Germany ended in catastrophe. History, I fear, is repeating itself. So, what to do next? If America does invade Greenland, Nato – in its current form – will cease to exist overnight. The threat is clearly existential. However, that does not mean the alliance of European countries should also fall by the wayside. Europe and Canada have to stick together like limpets.

No doubt, Trump will seek to divide and conquer. Indeed, his plan is already afoot. For by announcing fresh tariffs on Europe, Trump will hope each European leader buckles under the pressure and quietly seeks to strike a deal, thus shattering the continent’s unified front. Sadly, Europe looks anything but united. France’s Emmanuel Macron has called for the continent to unleash its ‘trade bazooka’ against the US, but Starmer yesterday played down the threat of retaliatory tariffs. Similarly, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has described the conflict with the US as a mere ‘misunderstanding’. Until the whole of Europe appreciates the scale of the threat, there is little hope of serious action. Second, we must plug the military gap now. That means defence spending must increase today.

The Government pledged to increase spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035, but that will be too late. The money must be available immediately, and spent not on back-office bureaucracy but on our ability to fight a war. Mark my words, tomorrow will be too late. At the same time, we must forge closer military alliances with European partners. That means war-gaming potential scenarios, running drills and exercises in coordination with France, Germany, Norway and Denmark. Yesterday, Trump wrote an extraordinary letter to the Norwegian PM, first bemoaning that he wasn’t awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and then arguing that Nato should ‘do something for the United States’.

It is worth noting that only one country has invoked Article 5 of the Nato Treaty – which demands all members come to another’s defence. And that country was the United States following the 9/11 terror attacks. In the ensuing war in Afghanistan, Britain lost 457 service personnel while Denmark lost 43. Two decades on and Europe is the one under attack, but – in a development that has snapped the thread of history – it is the US who is the aggressor. General Sir Richard Shirreff is a former deputy supreme allied commander of Nato in Europe.