The notion of an impending global conflict seems to be gaining traction among Americans, suggesting an unsettling sentiment of anxiety about the future. A recent poll reveals that nearly half of the U.S. population—46% to be precise—believes that the world is on the brink of another world war by the year 2031. This represents a significant increase from previous figures, where only 38% shared this concern back in March 2025, according to data collected by Politico Europe.
The apprehension extends beyond American borders, with similar sentiments echoed across several Western nations such as Canada, the United Kingdom, and France. However, Germany appears to be an outlier in this trend. Only a quarter of Germans surveyed are concerned about the possibility of a global conflict, with 40% dismissing the likelihood of such an event occurring within the next five years.
This growing anticipation of international strife highlights a palpable tension in the geopolitical landscape, influencing public perception and stirring debate about the trajectory of global peace. The shift in public opinion underscores the evolving geopolitical dynamics and the perceived threats that loom large in the minds of people across the world.
The number in the US who foresee global war in the short-term is up 8% — from the 38% polled in March 2025 when Politico last conducted the survey.
Across five Western countries — US, Canada, UK, France and Germany — only Germans didn’t sweat the likelihood of imminent war. Just 25% of Germans were building bomb shelters, compared to the 40% who thought World War III was unlikely over the next five years.
In the US, Canada, United Kingdom and France, the number of people predicting Armaggedon spiked since March.
The sharpest jump was in the UK, where 43% believe a new world war is “likely” or “very likely” to break out — up from 30% in March.
People in the US were most likely to believe their own country will be at war within the next five years, the poll also found — as hostilities with Iran over its nuclear program continue to raise tensions in the Middle East.
Canada respondents shockingly said it was the US that would trigger a war with the Great White North as the two North American neighbors have tussled over everything from trade to tarriffs.
Meanwhile, Europe saw Russia as its biggest threat in a global war, as Russian strongman Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — and his European ambitions — nears its four-year anniversary.
Politico surveyed more than 2,000 people in each country between Feb. 6 and 9.
