In light of recent military actions, Europe might soon find itself within the reach of Iranian missiles, a situation exacerbated by the targeted strikes orchestrated by former U.S. President Donald Trump against Iran’s military hierarchy. This alarming possibility has been highlighted by Dr. Sidharth Kaushal, a seasoned research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

Dr. Kaushal expressed concerns that the aggressive tactics employed by the United States and Israel could inadvertently place critical military decision-making in the hands of less experienced Iranian military personnel. This shift in leadership could potentially entangle Europe in the escalating regional conflict.

Iran’s missile capabilities, notably the Khorramshahr missiles, possess a reach that spans between 2,000 and 3,000 kilometers. Such a range places several Western European cities, including Rome, Athens, and Budapest, within striking distance, according to some experts.

This past Saturday marked a significant escalation in tensions as the United States and Israel launched a series of comprehensive airstrikes against Iranian targets. These actions have swiftly intensified into what is now a full-blown regional war.

The airstrikes have decimated a substantial portion of Iran’s top echelon, including influential figures such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s army chief of staff General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, and defense minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh. Major General Mohammad Pakpour, who ascended to lead the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) following the assassination of its former leader by Israel in June 2025, was also among those eliminated.

Those killed by the US and Israel include Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s army chief of staff General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, defence minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh and Major General Mohammad Pakpour, who took power as the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) after Israel killed its last leader in June 2025.  

Europe’s interests have already been affected, with global oil and gas prices skyrocketing over the last two days and Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, backed by Iran, launching a drone at a British RAF airbase in Cyprus on Monday.  

Iran warned Europe this morning against siding with Israel and the US, after Germany, Britain and France said they could take ‘defensive action’ to destroy Iran’s missile-launching capabilities.

‘It would be an act of war. Any such act against Iran would be regarded as complicity with the aggressors. It would be regarded as an act of war against Iran,’ foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said at a press briefing when asked about the statement.

Dr. Kaushal told the Daily Mail that the continent could face even greater costs if Donald Trump continues to decapitate Iran’s military leadership. 

He said that as the US and Israel continues to whittle down Iran’s senior defence leadership, the country’s long-held military doctrine of ‘mosaic warfare’ would devolve power to more inexperienced and fanatical officials, making it harder to predict the military’s actions. 

He said: ‘Ever since the 2000s, the Iranian concept of so-called “mosaic warfare” [has been] built around the idea that their leadership might be crippled in a war with the United States, and so they would have to devolve control down the levels of command to ensure that their military could continue to function. 

‘The basic concept is that people at lower levels [who] may have been given standard… rules of engagement in peacetime would presume greater authority if they can’t make contact with higher command. 

‘There is a question of just how much authority to do things that might widen the war sits now with people who would not have [ordinarily] controlled.’

Dr. Kaushal added: ‘A lot is unknown about exactly what this would look like under the hood of the Iranian system.’ 

So core to Iran’s military strategy is mosaic warfare that, on Sunday, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi warned: ‘We’ve had two decades to study defeats of the US military to our immediate east and west. We’ve incorporated lessons accordingly.

‘Bombings in our capital have no impact on our ability to conduct war. Decentralised Mosaic Defence enables us to decide when – and how – war will end.’

Dr. Kaushal said that while there was a ‘low probability’ that Europe would be attacked, ‘it’s not so unlikely that you can’t conceive of the situation.’

But given the Iranian regime’s long-range attack capabilities, the risk to European capitals still exists. 

Iran’s longest-range missile is believed to be the Khorramshahr 4 missile. 

It has a range of 2,000 to 3,000km and carries a 1,500kg warhead, according to the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, a US-based think tank. 

It can be launched in volleys, and if used, the missiles could reach a large swathe of Europe, including Greece, Italy, Germany, Poland and Denmark.

Dr. Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at RUSI, told the Daily Mail that the Khorramshahr is a ‘derivative’ of a North Korean ballistic missile. 

He said: ‘It was always speculated that this would have been the delivery vehicle for a nuclear warhead if the Iranians had ever developed one.’

Shahed suicide drones, with a range of 2,000km, could also strike parts of Europe, while an array of missiles with ranges of about 1,200 to 1,500km have already been reaching countries across the Middle East, such as Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. 

These another layer of pressure to its potential targets. 

Slower than missiles but easier to launch in large numbers, Iran’s one-way attack drones may be used in repeated waves to wear down air defences.

Iran is believed to possess the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East. However, the exact count is difficult to pinpoint due to the Islamic Republic’s so-called ‘missile cities’ and lack of transparency. 

The Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities were bombed by Israel during the 12-Day War last year. 

But the regime has a large arsenal of shorter-range systems capable of reaching its neighbours and US military bases across the region, and several of these are believed to have survived Israel’s strikes last year.  

Fears are also bubbling that Iran will call on its sleeper terror cells to attack targets across Europe.

A sleeper cell is a covert group of operatives affiliated with a state or non-state actor, such as a terrorist group, who infiltrate a country or community, essentially hiding in plain sight for a prolonged period of time before they are activated to carry out acts of terrorism, spying or sabotage. 

Marc Henrichmann, a member of the German parliament’s intelligence committee, warned on Sunday that the weekend’s attacks won’t stay isolated to the Middle East. 

Speaking to German media, he said: ‘The escalation in the Middle East doesn’t just affect the region itself.  

‘The Iranian regime has repeatedly demonstrated in the past that it carried out its terror beyond its own borders.’

The German official went on: ‘Iranian sleeper cells in Europe cannot be ruled out’ as a part of Tehran’s retaliation strategy. 

‘Vigilance is the order of the day,’ he concluded. 

Concern from Germany is held across the West, as experts and security officials believe that Iran has drawn up a blueprint for terror attacks involving sleeper cells and proxy groups in Britain and Europe in the event of the assassination of its leader. 

The assassination of the Ayatollah has already prompted a review of the UK’s terror threat level. 

MI5 warned last year that Iran had been behind 20 potentially deadly plots in the UK in the last 12 months. 

On Sunday, Defence Secretary John Healey said there was a risk of ‘increasing Iranian indiscriminate retaliatory attacks’ which required a review of the threat level. This currently stands at ‘substantial’ – meaning a terror attack is judged to be ‘likely’. There are two higher levels – ‘severe’ and ‘critical’.

Speaking on Sky News, Healey said: ‘When you have some of [Iran’s] proxies capable of other actions on their behalf, then of course our force protection in the region is at its highest. Our alert and vigilance in the UK is also high.’

Worries over Tehran’s ability to unleash chaos beyond the Middle East are understood to be rooted in efforts by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ efforts to coordinate clandestine intelligence operations, such as assassinations and cyber attacks, across the West, according to The i.  

There is also increased concern that the IRGC could act alongside the Lebanese militia group Hezbollah, which is believed to have a support network of sleeper agents in Europe. 

Elsewhere in the US, it has been reported that there has been increased ‘chatter’ – a term used for electronic intercepts of terrorists’ communications. 

One senior US official told the New York Times that government analysts were observing ‘a lot’ of terrorist cell activity.  

Cypriot officials said France will dispatch a warship to Cyprus to help bolster the country’s anti-drone defenses after a Rashed drone struck a British military base on the east Mediterranean island.

France also will send additional land-based, anti-drone and anti-missile systems to the country, officials confirmed Tuesday.

Germany also responded positively to a request to send a warship, according to three officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to provide details publicly.

The equipment will arrive in Cyprus as soon as possible, they said

The French military did not respond immediately to a request for information from The Associated Press.

The drone struck the British base, RAF Akrotiri, shortly after midnight Monday and caused only minor material damage to an aircraft hangar. Another two drones were intercepted by British warplanes around midday Monday after they were scrambled from the air base, officials said.

Greece has sent four F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus while two of its state-of-the-art frigates are on their way.  

The US ambassador in Israel told Americans there that the best way to leave is through Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.

Mike Huckabee said in a social media post early Tuesday that the embassy was receiving lots of evacuations requests as embassy staff ‘are sheltering in place.’

‘There are VERY LIMITED options,’ he wrote. ‘Not sure when Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv will reopen.’

He advised Americans to take buses to Egypt’s resorts of Sharm el-Sheikh and Taba in southern Sinai, describing that route as ‘best.’ 

The US State Department evacuations of non-emergency personnel and family reached six nations on Tuesday with the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates.

The UAE, home to Dubai and Abu Dhabi and long considered a safe corner of the Middle East, has been dragged into the Iran war with interceptions and attacks.

The other countries include Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan. Kuwait and Qatar.

The US Embassy in Abu Dhabi also warned there could be militant attacks in the UAE as well.

‘Terrorists may attack with little or no warning and may target tourist locations, transportation hubs, shopping areas, government facilities, places of worship, and in particular locations associated with the Jewish and Israeli communities,’ it added.