The Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, recently highlighted a significant decrease in the number of individuals relying on food stamps through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which she attributed to reduced fraud and a strengthening economy.
However, many experts challenge this explanation, suggesting instead that the decline is primarily due to new legislative changes affecting how the program operates.
Let’s delve into the details to uncover the truth.
ROLLINS stated, “As of a few days ago, we’ve successfully transitioned 4.3 million Americans off the food stamp program. Much of this is due to reducing fraud, ensuring the program is used correctly, and a robust economy. We’ve seen wage growth exceeding inflation for the first time since early 2021. It’s a significant achievement, reducing dependence on food stamps.”
THE FACTS: According to preliminary data from the Agriculture Department, SNAP participation dropped by nearly 4.3 million from January 2025 to January 2026. Experts, however, attribute this decline predominantly to the effects of new regulations implemented following a major tax and spending reduction bill passed by Republicans last summer.
This legislation is expected to reduce federal spending on SNAP by $186 billion over the next decade, representing a 20% cut, as estimated by the Congressional Budget Office.
“What we’ve seen in terms of the data is that the trend in participation declines seems to be related to the program being harder to access,” said Roger Figueroa, an assistant professor at Cornell University who studies food insecurity from a public health perspective.
The data says fraud is low
Fraud within the SNAP is small, according to experts, not nearly enough to account for such a significant drop.
In the financial year 2023, the latest data that is available, 41,476 people were disqualified from SNAP for fraud. That includes people who erroneously reported information during the application process and people who exchanged benefits for cash or other non-eligible items. Out of 42,176,946 total participants, that’s less than 1%.
“I don’t see any evidence supporting a significant reduction in fraud as a driver of what we’re seeing as far as declining SNAP participation,” said Caitlin Caspi, an associate professor at the University of Connecticut who studies food insecurity.
Asked for data to support Rollins’ claim about fraud’s relationship to the decrease of SNAP beneficiaries, the USDA directed The Associated Press to reporting from the New York Post and the Foundation for Government Accountability on broad-based categorical eligibility. SNAP applicants in most states may be eligible for SNAP using this policy if they qualify for non-cash benefits from the federal Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program or similar state-run efforts.
BBCE has been criticized for allowing states too much flexibility in determining who is eligible for SNAP by removing asset maximums, using a higher limit for gross income, or both. The Trump administration hopes to do away with the policy, but for now it is a legal option.
Food insecurity persists despite economic gains
The U.S. economy generally performed strongly in 2025 after getting off to a bumpy start. Gross domestic product shrank for the first time in three years during the first quarter, but growth rebounded in the second half of the year. It slowed in the fourth quarter, but continued to accelerate at the start of 2026, expanding at a modest 2% pace from January through March, rebounding from a record 43-day government shutdown last year.
But while the economy is strong, food prices are rising. They were up 3.1% in 2025 and are expected to increase 2.9% in 2026. And for many of those facing ongoing financial hardship, a strong economy typically doesn’t make a difference.
“We have a persistent poverty problem in this country,” said Kate Bauer, an associate professor of nutritional sciences at the University of Michigan. “And we have huge economic disparities. And most people, even in good economic times, are not able to pull their families out of poverty.”
Wage growth, at 3.4%, did outpace inflation, at 3.3%, in March, though it was not the first time since 2021, as Rollins claimed. And yet in 2025, higher-income Americans benefited more than lower-income households, which struggled with weaker income gains and steep prices. Plus, hiring was sluggish, and the unemployment rate ticked up.
“We’re not seeing a linear kind of drop-off,” said Caspi. “We are not seeing, if you look at the unemployment rates, things that might be an indicator that a strong economy was driving this change. We don’t see, for example, a pattern of decline in unemployment that would match the pattern of decline in SNAP participation.”
The ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ made massive changes to SNAP
Experts say some of the biggest drivers in the drop of SNAP participants were changes made in the 940-page “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” also known as H.R. 1. For example, it mandated that certain adults who were previously exempt from work requirements are now subject to them.
There are two types of work requirements for eligibility. General rules apply to most people age 16-59, but able-bodied adults without dependents must follow stricter guidelines — made even stricter by H.R. 1– unless they qualify for an exemption. Participants can meet the more stringent requirements by working or participating in a work program for at least 80 hours a month. They do not need to be paid.
Previously, able-bodied adults older than 54 without dependents were exempt from the enhanced requirements. That age has been raised to 64. And the bill lowered the age of children whom a person is responsible for to qualify for an exemption from 18 to 14. Homeless people, veterans, and former foster children 24 or younger are no longer exempt either.
“Families have lots of really complicated situations, and you can’t just say to people, in 10 days or in one month, go find 80 hours a month of work when you don’t have the skills and those jobs aren’t available in your community,” said Bauer.
SNAP eligibility applies only to U.S. citizens and some lawful immigrants, although groups such as refugees and asylees no longer qualify because of H.R. 1.
By the numbers
In January 2025, when Trump was sworn in as president for his second term, there were approximately 42.83 million SNAP participants. That number dropped nearly 10% by January 2026, to about 38.55 million. The majority of the decline occurred in the second half of the year, after Trump signed H.R. 1 in July. There was a decrease of just 743,572 people from January 2025 to June 2025 and one of about 3.47 million from July 2025 to January 2026.
The Congressional Budget Office predicted that the bill would cause such a sharp drop, estimating in an August 2025 report that certain provisions would “reduce participation in SNAP by roughly 2.4 million people in an average month over the 2025-2034 period.”
“It shouldn’t be surprising that we are seeing this decline, and it shouldn’t be a leap in logic to think that these declines are attributable to H.R. 1,” said Caspi.
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