One Nation could be close enough to strike a path to power with the Coalition if Australians went to the polls today, according to a fresh national survey.
The latest DemosAU poll, drawn from responses from 9,343 voters between May and July 2026, points to a likely hung parliament, with both Labor and One Nation positioned as potential contenders to lead a minority government.
Using an MRP model to forecast outcomes across all 150 federal electorates, the polling suggests Labor would secure between 60 and 72 seats, One Nation between 53 and 66, the Coalition between 11 and 22, and the Greens anywhere from one to five.
While Labor is still projected to hold the largest number of seats, including 45 in inner-city metropolitan areas, the poll shows One Nation gaining serious traction in the outer suburbs. In the 64 outer-metropolitan electorates expected to be crucial in deciding government, the party leads the primary vote on 30 per cent.
The right-wing party’s support appears even stronger outside the major cities, with the model putting One Nation ahead in 39 of the 41 seats classified as regional or rural. Its primary vote in those areas stands at 41 per cent, raising the prospect of the party sweeping every rural and regional electorate.
The findings come despite Opposition Leader Angus Taylor appearing to rule out any arrangement with One Nation, warning the party’s economic agenda would deliver an “eternity of pain”. However, Liberal frontbencher Andrew Bragg shifted the conversation on Monday by refusing to shut down the possibility of a deal.
DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos said One Nation’s surge is most pronounced in Queensland, the home state of party leader Pauline Hanson.
“One Nation’s strongest state is Queensland, where it has risen to 34 per cent and is leading in 20 of the state’s 30 seats according to the MRP model,” Mr Hasanakos said in a statement.
A new poll indicates One Nation would be within ‘arm’s reach’ of forming a minority government if an election was held today (pictured party leader Pauline Hanson)
DemosAU polling shows Labor’s primary vote slipping, with One Nation leading in the 64 outer metro seats most likely to decide government
The poll showed One Nation enjoys strong support in Queensland and Western Australia
Mr Hasanakos continued: ‘The most significant finding of the MRP is that One Nation is now leading across many outer metro seats in Brisbane and Perth, as well as a few in outer Sydney and outer Melbourne.
‘It is in these seats that One Nation needs to win to have a chance of forming at least a minority government.’
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Mr Hasanakos also said the party’s primary vote has risen by five percentage points in Western Australia, with Labor MPs Trish Cook, Tom French and Tracey Roberts all under threat from the orange wave.
In Tasmania, One Nation has surged into the lead in three northern and central Tasmanian seats, with Labor only holding a firm lead in the seat of Franklin.
However, in Victoria, despite the party leading in all eight regional and rural seats, it does not have a firm lead in any of the five held by the Coalition.
The poll also shows Labor has lost support among women, down four percentage points compared to a two-point fall among men, while One Nation has enjoyed a surge in support among high-income voters.
‘One Nation’s gender gap has shifted relatively towards men with a four percentage point rise compared to just two among women,’ Mr Hasanakos said.
‘Conversely Labor’s vote share has fallen more as the respondent’s income has increased, which indicates an impact from the public reaction about the recent budget tax changes.’
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and Barnaby Joyce, who serves as Treasury spokesperson
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However, the poll indicates there remains a sizeable contingent of ‘Never Hanson’ Coalition voters who would rather give their preferences to Labor than vote for One Nation.
Mr Hasanakos added: ‘There are a minority cohort of Liberal voters in metropolitan Australia that are averse to One Nation, and their preferences are keeping Labor from falling behind in the race for government at this point.’
It comes as Hanson has faced repeated scrutiny over the past month following her return from the UK, where she conducted an interview with anti-immigration activist and convicted criminal Tommy Robinson and told a conservative conference Australia had been ‘flooded’ with migrants.
She has also faced calls to walk back her comments on domestic violence after she told Brisbane radio station 4BC last week that abuse is a ‘two way street’ between women and men.
She is also under pressure to sack her longtime colleague Malcolm Roberts, who has been accused of embracing conspiracy theories and anti-Semitic tropes.
