DALLAS — Sweeping House wave elections may be a thing of the past, at least through the rest of the decade, according to the Republican charged with leading the GOP’s congressional campaign operation.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Richard Hudson (R-NC) told The Post that the fight for control of the House is no longer defined by broad national tides. Instead, he said, aggressive gerrymandering has left the country with so few competitive districts that each contest resembles a brutal, hyperlocal brawl.
“I call it 30 knife fights in 30 dark alleys,” Hudson explained. “It’s just a handful of races, but every one of them will be decided by a few thousand votes. It’s going to be close.”
Hudson said he expects that narrow battlefield to persist until at least the next census, when House seats are reapportioned and states once again redraw congressional district lines.
That marks a sharp break from the pre-2020 political environment, when control of the House could shift dramatically in a single cycle. Democrats, for example, posted a net gain of 41 seats in 2018, while Republicans captured a net gain of 64 seats in 2010.
The 2022 midterms produced a much smaller shift. Republicans netted just 10 seats, enough to secure what has functioned as a five-seat House majority.
Despite that advantage, many analysts and media commentators have cast Republicans as underdogs in the battle for the House. Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Democrats an 84% chance of taking back the chamber.
History is also weighing on the GOP. Since 1938, the party holding the White House has lost House seats in every midterm but two, and Republicans’ razor-thin margin has fueled expectations that they will surrender control.
Republican leaders, however, have pushed back forcefully, insisting the party still has a realistic and clearly defined path to keeping its majority.
“They’re not looking at the facts on the ground. They’re not looking at actual polling in the districts that are up for grabs,” Hudson said when asked what forecasters are missing. “We’ve never had as small a map as we have for this midterm.”
“There’s never been this few seats that are actually up for grabs,” he added. “If you look at the actual seats that are up for grabs, they’re mostly Republican seats held by Democrats.”
At the opening of the current Congress, 13 House Democrats represented states that President Trump carried in 2024. By contrast, only three Republicans came from states won by former Vice President Kamala Harris.
The Cook Political Report currently favors Republicans to win 209 House seats, compared to the Democrats’ 205. That leaves 21 toss-up seats.
Hudson also crowed about how the GOP is sitting on a cash cannon, with much larger war chests than Democrats, as they scramble during the midterm homestretch. The cash advantage has been amplified by the Supreme Court’s decision earlier this year striking down barriers on coordination with campaigns.
The NRCC boss revealed that the official House GOP campaign has really only begun tapping into its war chest in a significant way this month.
“Because voters don’t really pay attention until after Labor Day, so we’ll spend the money on when the voters are engaged,” when asked about the wait.
“We had field staff on the ground in these districts doing voter contact, knocking doors, making phone calls, and we’ve been doing that for a long time. But in terms of paid advertising, I just don’t think voters are paying attention if you go in July, August,” he said. “September is the right time.”
Hudson also predicted that in his home state, Republican Michael Whatley will prevail over former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) in the state’s critical Senate race, despite polls having him down and the Cook Political Report rating the contest as lean Democratic.
“His ceiling’s low, and the truth is the voters really have never seen his entire record prosecuted,” Hudson said of Cooper. “Once all these things start coming to light, Cooper’s going to be unelectable in North Carolina.
“No one sees him. He’s not on the trail anyway.”
