Just over 11 weeks ago, Prince Harry, Meghan and their children, Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet, returned to the UK.
The move came as a surprise. The consequences of Megxit and the family’s life in California were well established, while a series of damaging public disputes had severely strained their relationship with the Royal Family.
Although Harry had shared tea with his father, the King, at Highgrove the previous month, many people still found it difficult to believe that he planned to spend the next few years in Britain, that his children would attend a British school or that he and Meghan were searching for a permanent home in the Cotswolds.
That, however, was the message being conveyed by their friends and public relations team.
The children are now nearing the end of their first term at a British private school. Harry and Meghan have also undertaken a day of joint, quasi-royal engagements in Nottingham, followed this week by an appearance in Brussels.
They still have no permanent home in the UK. The family is now living in a second property on the same estate along the Northamptonshire-Oxfordshire border, owned by a wealthy friend. They moved when the newly renovated residence became available.
Sussex sources this week began briefing the surprising news that the family will spend the festive season in Britain, in the Cotswolds
The Duchess of Sussex with her mother Doria, who will travel to Britain to spend Christmas with the Sussexes
The arrangement is described as temporary, although the couple are said to be very happy there. Their search for a house is reportedly under way, but they remain some distance from owning a home of their own in Britain.
Attention has now turned to the question of Christmas.
According to Sussex sources, the family has abandoned its original plan to return to its Montecito mansion and spend the festive period with American friends and Meghan’s mother, Doria.
Instead, they intend to remain in the Cotswolds, with Doria travelling to Britain to join them.
“Harry says he is really looking forward to a cold Christmas,” a loyal friend told me this week.
But what prompted the change? This may be a “cold Christmas” in more than one sense.
Harry and Meghan have dropped their original plan to return to their Montecito mansion for Christmas with American friends
The Sussexes will not attend the Christmas Day walk to St Mary Magdalene Church (pictured: King Charles and Queen Camilla at last year’s Christmas service)
The Sussexes have not been invited to join the wider family at Sandringham, and they understand that. Sources on both the Sussex and Palace sides confirm it. “Harry is relaxed about it; he knows he is not invited,” says one friend.
Buckingham Palace has declined to comment on “private family arrangements”, but a source familiar with the situation says that, despite hopes for improvement, relations remain “complex”. The couple will not be welcomed back into the family group this December.
“There are obvious reasons why that will not happen,” says one source, adding that “some people have strong feelings”. The comment refers to the icy relationship between Harry and Prince William after the publication of Spare, in which Harry described his brother as his “arch nemesis”, accused William and Catherine of being unwelcoming towards Meghan and detailed heated arguments, including an alleged physical confrontation with William.
Harry and Meghan therefore will not be sharing Christmas with the family or joining the traditional Christmas Day walk to St Mary Magdalene Church.
They are also absent from another family occasion. The King turns 78 today and is expected to mark his birthday with a small private gathering at Clarence House, as usual.
His younger son and his family will not be invited. Again, I am told that Harry is aware of the decision and is not troubled by it.
Harry, who attended a Remembrance Day service in Brackley, Northamptonshire, will not be invited with his family to the King’s small gathering at Clarence House for his 78th birthday
The only comment Palace sources will offer is: “The King loves all his children.”
Yet the situation is undeniably unusual. Harry returned to Britain almost three months ago with the stated intention of rebuilding relations with his family and raising his children as British youngsters connected to their relatives and heritage.
So far, however, every indication is that his efforts have been met with a courteous but firm refusal. In blunt terms, he and his young family appear to be being sidelined.
Given how little Harry has seen of the King since returning—and several sources say the father and son have still not met in person—they might just as well be living in California.
The approach appears to resemble a “grey rock” strategy, with the Palace taking care to avoid becoming involved in Sussex-related disputes.
The family had been back in Britain for four weeks when the Lord Chamberlain’s office issued guidance stating that they were “akin to private citizens” and should be treated accordingly when carrying out engagements.
The wording and timing appeared designed to limit the statement’s impact. It was presented as a reaffirmation of the terms agreed under Megxit.
Within hours, the Sussexes responded sharply, saying they considered themselves “public figures”. Through friends, they also complained that they had not been given enough time to respond and said they were “surprised” by the announcement.
Further complaints followed over their security arrangements, which remain under review despite lawsuits and repeated briefings from the Sussex side. The Palace has maintained its silence in response.
Some observers believe recent events have demonstrated the effectiveness of that strategy.
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Harry attended a Remembrance Day service in Brackley, Northamptonshire, wearing his medals. Images from the private appearance were shared with newspapers, but the event did not overshadow the main ceremonies at the Cenotaph.
“He is perfectly entitled to mark Remembrance Day in whatever way he chooses,” says one source. “Nobody is going to tell a veteran what he can or cannot do.”
It is easy to see why some commentators have begun describing him as irrelevant.
The Sussexes’ independence allows them to act as they wish, but it also gives the Palace permission to leave them out of official family affairs.
Their friends offer a more favourable interpretation.
“Harry understands the narrative. He was careful not to overshadow the service or make a fuss. He stood at the back with a couple of other men. He knows how it looks,” one said.
“A second-tier Remembrance service would have welcomed him, but he did not choose that.
“This strategy comes very much from Harry. He understands what ordinary people think and is directing it himself.”
The question is whether the Palace can sustain this position.
When Harry and Meghan first returned, they remained largely out of public view. A different pattern is now emerging, with the couple appearing separately and together at philanthropic events, sometimes using those appearances to create commercial opportunities.
On Tuesday, they attended an event at the European Parliament in Brussels. The engagement was held on behalf of the Lost Screen Partnership, which launched a memorial for children harmed by online media.
Meghan was expected to speak but withdrew. Sources said she was “emotionally not strong enough” to give an address involving her father, Thomas Markle, who is in prison awaiting trial on charges relating to the possession of an image of child sexual abuse.
Harry used his speech to support European Union legislation seeking greater protection for children online. Had he been a working member of the Royal Family, such a position would have been considered inappropriate because the institution must remain above party politics. As he is no longer a working royal, there is no Palace authority overseeing his comments.
Meghan wore an expensive double-breasted black coat for the event and has since listed it for sale on the OneOff website for $695. She is an investor in the company and one of the influencers who promote clothing they have worn, receiving a share of the proceeds.
It is not the first time she has faced criticism for appearing to commercialise a quasi-royal engagement.
Earlier this year, she listed on the same website the outfit she wore while visiting survivors of the Bondi Beach terror attack.
The prospect of clothing sales linked to the launch of a children’s memorial may prompt further questions, and Sussex advisers will no doubt consider the reaction.
I understand that Clara and Nick Loughran, both former royal aides with connections to Harry stretching back more than a decade, are now offering advice. They worked with him at Buckingham Palace before he met Meghan and are helping the couple manage the optics of their engagements.
Sussex friends insist they will not seek to monetise their UK appearances, but say they may pursue commercial opportunities when they are abroad—in this case, just a short journey away in Belgium.
Whether that is sustainable remains to be seen. So too does the question of how long Meghan can maintain her California-inspired lifestyle brand, As Ever, while living in the British countryside.
Despite the criticism, friends of the couple insist that family life is going well.
“They had always planned to return to California for Christmas, but the children are doing so well that I am not sure they will now. They are really enjoying their schools and are looking forward to celebrating Christmas in the UK.
“In some ways, it would have been easier not to be here, because there would be no speculation about whether they will attend a church service, whether it will become a small royal-style Christmas or whether Harry will keep his head down and disappear completely.
“Where they are living now, they do not have to be seen by anyone. They can spend quiet time with the children and close, longstanding friends.
“Everything is calm. They are looking forward to a private family Christmas. Harry will wish his father, William and the rest of the family a happy Christmas by phone or video call.
“It will be a normal family celebration. There is no estrangement. They are brothers who will simply be spending Christmas in different ways.
“Harry is comfortable not being required at Sandringham. He is content to spend the holiday with his own family.”
It is all very well to insist that there is “no estrangement”, but when relatives in the same country do not see one another, the situation certainly appears that way.
Harry’s friend says: “They are all extremely busy. I would expect him to see his father privately before Christmas. He is comfortable with that; he has had a great deal to deal with. He returned in the third week of August and his diary has been packed ever since.”
Sources close to the Palace say it is possible—perhaps even likely—that father and son will meet at some point between now and Christmas.
That still falls short of the arrangement some optimistic friends imagined when Harry returned: regular meetings and “tea with Pa once a month”.
For now, all anyone can do is watch and wonder whether the frost between them will ever fully thaw.
