Democrats hold a far narrower advantage over Republicans in the fight for control of Congress than they did at the same point in the 2018 “blue wave” cycle, when Democrats captured the House but fell short of taking the Senate, according to new polling.
With 44 days remaining before the election, Democrats led Republicans 50% to 45% among registered voters asked which party they would prefer to control Congress, an NBC News survey found.
Although the five-point margin is larger than the poll’s margin of error, it is well below the 12-point Democratic advantage recorded at this stage in 2018. Democrats ultimately won the House popular vote by 8.6 percentage points that year.
The NBC figure also falls short of the Democrats’ 8.1-point lead in RealClearPolitics’ average of generic congressional ballot polls.
Historically, the party occupying the White House has lost congressional seats in all but two elections since 1938. That pattern, combined with voters’ concerns about affordability and President Trump’s underwater approval rating, had led many analysts to expect Democrats to win at least the House.
The NBC News poll, however, suggests Democrats may struggle to match the 41-seat House gain they achieved during the previous blue wave election.
Some political analysts say the latest round of redistricting, based on new census data, has already made a swing of that magnitude extremely difficult.
Democrats also lost ground in the Senate during the 2018 election, although the map that year was particularly challenging for the party. Republicans defeated Democratic incumbents in Florida, Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota, while Democrats gained seats in Nevada and Arizona.
Another challenge for Democrats is their unfavorable image. Just 29% of respondents viewed the party positively, while 50% held a negative opinion. Republicans registered a 36% positive rating and a 49% negative rating.
The Democratic Socialists of America received a favorable rating from only 22% of those surveyed. Roughly half of voters said they would be less likely to support a candidate who “supports many of the Democratic Socialists of America’s proposed policies,” according to the poll.
Republicans have highlighted the DSA’s growing profile as they try to overcome historical trends and retain control of the House.
Even so, the survey points to substantial political vulnerabilities for the GOP.
Trump’s approval rating stood at 41%, while 55% of respondents said his policies had made the economy worse. That figure rose from 48% in March, according to the poll.
At the same time, 43% of voters said their midterm ballot would represent opposition to Trump, compared with 27% who said it would signal support for him.
Republicans have traditionally held an advantage over Democrats on economic issues, but the latest survey gives Democrats a one-point edge on the economy.
“Donald Trump has achieved his goal of making this election about him at a historic level,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, which conducted the survey with the Republican-led firm Public Opinion Strategies, told NBC News.
“The problem for Trump and Republicans on the ballot in November is that he has also made history in the highest share of voters who say their vote is in opposition to Trump.”
The poll surveyed 1,000 people from Sept. 11–15 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
