Netanyahu Gains Ground as Israeli Election Heads Toward Political Deadlock

Updated Israeli exit polls early Wednesday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu narrowing the gap with his political opponents, but still failing to secure a parliamentary majority. The projections pointed to a potential political stalemate, even as parties outside his governing bloc were collectively projected to control more than half of the Knesset.

An updated Channel 12 exit poll released at 3:30 a.m. Israel time gave Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc 53 seats. The main opposition, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, was projected to win 49 seats, while Arab parties were expected to take 19. Combined, the opposition and Arab factions would hold 68 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, though they remain divided over whether they could govern together.

Speaking at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem, Netanyahu adopted a defiant tone and declared that his party had emerged as Israel’s largest. He urged supporters to back the creation of a strong right-wing government.

“We are still waiting for the actual results, which we will receive over the next day or two,” Netanyahu told the crowd. “Two things have become clear. The first is unequivocal: Likud is the largest party in Israel.”

“We must establish a strong national right-wing government,” he said, warning against any coalition that relied on Arab parties, which he accused of opposing Israel’s existence.

Netanyahu spoke several hours after Eisenkot addressed supporters at his campaign headquarters in Tel Aviv, where early projections had shown the opposition in front. Eisenkot called on Netanyahu to recognize the outcome and leave office, but the revised figures highlighted the continued uncertainty. Netanyahu also described Israel’s partnership with Trump as a “once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity” to eliminate what he called the existential threat posed by Iran.
Netanyahu also said Israel faced a “once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity” with Trump to eliminate the existential threat from Iran.

The rival speeches underscored the election’s central question: which leader will receive the first chance to form a government?
If Eisenkot wins recommendations from at least 61 lawmakers, potentially with support from Arab parties, he could receive the first mandate even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest single party. That mandate, however, would not ensure that he could build a governing coalition.
Netanyahu’s path also remains open. He could be asked to form a government despite lacking a majority, or receive another opportunity if Eisenkot’s coalition-building effort collapses. The result could leave Israel facing weeks of negotiations.

Israelis voted in exceptionally large numbers Tuesday in the country’s first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas massacre. Initial exit polls showed Netanyahu’s Likud as the largest party, while his governing coalition fell short of a majority, potentially creating an opening for a change in leadership.
 

Netanyahu fights for political future as Israel heads to polls with Iran threat looming

The figures are preliminary exit-poll projections rather than an official count. They may shift as election officials continue tallying ballots over the coming days.

The vote followed an extraordinary day at polling stations nationwide, where long queues formed and participation reached levels not seen in decades.

Turnout reached a historic 77.7% of eligible voters by the time polls closed, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee. It was the highest participation rate recorded since 1999, reflecting the intensity of the election and the stakes surrounding it.

The surge in voting led election officials to streamline procedures and reassure voters that anyone who arrived at a polling station before the 10 p.m. deadline would still be permitted to cast a ballot.

The election was widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership after three years of war, as well as on continuing questions about who bears responsibility for the security failures that enabled Hamas terrorists to kill approximately 1,200 people and abduct 251 others on Oct. 7, 2023.

Israel’s longest-serving prime minister campaigned on his record of confronting Iran and its regional proxies, pointing to Israel’s military achievements and his relationship with President Donald Trump. Opponents accused Netanyahu of refusing to accept responsibility for the security failures surrounding Oct. 7 and criticized his government’s approach to investigating the events that preceded the massacre.

A last-minute battle for every vote

In the campaign’s final hours, Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and other party leaders made an intense push to mobilize their bases, attract undecided voters and maximize turnout.

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Likud produced hundreds of targeted campaign videos and social media posts, making digital outreach a central element of its last-minute strategy.

Eisenkot’s campaign urged supporters to unite behind Yashar as the leading alternative to Likud, while Bennett traveled between cities and reached voters both in person and through WhatsApp conversations.

The key question now is which candidate can secure the support of at least 61 lawmakers when President Isaac Herzog consults with the newly elected parliamentary factions. If Eisenkot can obtain those recommendations, including from Arab parties, he would have a strong claim to receive the first opportunity to form a government, even though Netanyahu’s Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party. Crucially, Arab parties could recommend Eisenkot without formally joining his governing coalition. However, the final decision rests with Herzog, who is tasked with selecting the lawmaker he believes has the best chance of forming a government. Securing the first mandate would not guarantee Eisenkot could assemble a governing majority, leaving the possibility of another political deadlock.

The campaign’s closing hours also featured personal appeals, phone calls to undecided voters and aggressive turnout operations across the political spectrum.

The final days were particularly important because a relatively small share of voters remained undecided about which party to support.

A Times of Israel poll published five days before the election found that 87% of respondents had already made their final choice, while 2.4% remained undecided between the pro and anti-Netanyahu political blocs.

Other surveys suggested a larger pool of undecided voters, although many were choosing between parties within the same political camp rather than switching sides.

That distinction could prove decisive in Israel’s parliamentary system, where political parties need at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter the 120-seat Knesset.

Even a slight change in the vote share of smaller parties could shift several parliamentary seats and determine whether either camp has a realistic path to power.

What happens next?

Despite the exit poll projections, the identity of Israel’s next prime minister may remain uncertain for weeks.

Unlike in the United States, Israelis vote for political parties rather than directly electing their head of government.

The 120 seats in parliament are allocated proportionally, and parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to win representation.

Once the final results are certified, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with the newly elected political factions and select the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government.

That candidate will have 28 days to negotiate a governing coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension.

Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4. Until a new government takes office, Netanyahu’s outgoing government will remain in power.