New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is entering the final stretch before Election Day with a strong advantage, according to Siena University’s last pre-election poll.
The Democratic incumbent leads Republican Bruce Blakeman 54% to 40% among likely voters in the Empire State governor’s race, giving her a 14-point edge, the survey released Wednesday found.
Hochul’s advantage has widened since Siena’s previous poll, when she led 50% to 41%. Her margin has grown by five points over the past month.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
The poll also shows Democratic Attorney General Letitia James ahead of Republican challenger Saritha Komatireddy, 54% to 39%.
Democratic state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who is seeking a fourth term, holds an even larger lead. He has the support of 59% of voters, compared with 32% for Republican Joseph Hernandez.
One of the most significant findings involves independent voters, who now favor Hochul by 10 points and James by 11 points over their Republican opponents.
That marks a sharp reversal from last month, when Blakeman held a five-point advantage among independents.
Independent voters were crucial in 2022, when Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin by just six points after he made significant gains with that bloc.
Republicans face a steep challenge statewide because Democrats outnumber them by more than two to one in New York. To compete, a GOP candidate must win independent voters decisively.
“And here’s the bottom line: for Republicans to win statewide, they must win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they must win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one enrollment advantage,” Greenberg said.
“But with only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents, Hochul leads 67% to 23% among likely New York City voters and splitting the burbs and upstate.”
Hochul posted a similar 14-point lead in an independent Quinnipiac University poll released last week, leading Blakeman 55% to 41%. That survey, however, found Blakeman ahead among independents, 51% to 44%.
Polls commissioned by Blakeman’s campaign and surveys from Republican-leaning groups have painted a different picture, describing the contest as a much closer, single-digit race.
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Siena’s survey also found that New York voters are more pessimistic about the country’s direction than about the state’s trajectory.
Sixty-six percent said the United States is moving in the wrong direction, compared with 49% who said New York is on the wrong track.
A notable gender divide also favors Hochul. She leads Blakeman among women, 59% to 36%, for a 23-point advantage.
Among men, Hochul holds a narrower six-point lead, with support at 50% compared with Blakeman’s 44%.
Hochul leads Blakeman by more than two to one among Latino voters and holds an 81%-16% advantage among Black voters, while the two candidates are evenly matched among white voters.
Hochul also received another boost as she seeks her second full four-year term: For the first time in five years of Siena polling, at least half of voters view her favorably.
In the latest survey, 51% of voters view her favorably and 45% unfavorably, up a bit from 48% favorable to 46% unfavorable in September.
Likewise, 51% of respondents approved of the job she’s doing compared to 46% who disapproved, up from a split last month.
As for Blakeman, 39% of voters viewed him favorably and 40% unfavorably, with the rest undecided or not having an opinion.
Regardless of who they support for governor, 68% of respondents believed Hochul would win compared to 23% of those who predicted Blakeman would.
Voters were divided on who would make New York more affordable — 30% said Hochul, 27% said Blakeman and 35% said neither would.
A plurality of voters said New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of fellow Democrat Hochul was more of a positive (45%) than a negative (30%), with the rest saying it would have little to no effect or had no opinion.
Conversely, nearly half of voters said President Trump’s endorsement of Blakmen would be a negative for the Nassau County executive’s campaign, while just 29% said it was a positive — with the rest saying it had little to no effect or were unsure.
The Siena Poll was conducted from Oct. 19 – 22 among 807 likely voters. The survey questioned 494 voters through mobile or landline phone calls, while 313 were completed via text or web. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Election Day is Nov. 3.
