“The Republican Party has basically sold its soul to the devil,” declared truck driver Greg Florence.
Florence, 65, was once a Republican. This year, however, he voted for Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton in Sedgwick County, Kansas.
Diesel prices are “freaking ridiculously high,” he said angrily—and he knows exactly whom to blame.
Donald Trump.
Nearly 700 miles south, in Jefferson County, Texas, Karan Berman, 63, an administrator, rejected that explanation for rising fuel costs.
“Our gas fluctuates, and Trump is going to take care of that,” she said emphatically. “I’m 100 percent convinced we’re going to come out the other side smelling like a rose.”
For good measure, she dismissed the Democratic Senate candidate in her state, James Talarico, as a “little weirdo.”
Florence and Berman are among more than 100 million people expected to vote in this year’s midterm elections. With nearly all reputable experts predicting that Democrats will take control of the House, attention has centered on the Senate, where control will be decided by a small group of states—and by pivotal bellwether counties within them.
Our News Outlet visited five of those counties: Sedgwick County, Kansas; Jefferson County, Texas; Macomb County, Michigan; Montgomery County, Ohio; and Waldo County, Maine.
Karan Berman, 63, called Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico a “little weirdo”
Conversations with dozens of voters revealed several clear themes.
First, although Trump’s name is not on the ballot, he might as well be. Voters in these counties are largely treating the contests as a referendum on his leadership.
Second, Republican Senate candidates in competitive races are attempting to navigate a political tightrope. They must avoid alienating independents by appearing too loyal to Trump—particularly on the Iran war—while still using him to energize the MAGA base.
Finally, both parties are battling over turnout and enthusiasm. Democrats are buoyed by polls showing them competitive in unexpected places, while Republicans argue the numbers are wrong and insist a hidden vote will emerge on November 3, as it has for Trump in the past.
The Lone Star State
Jefferson County, Texas, may offer one of the clearest indications of where the state is heading.
It is Texas’s only “pivot county”—one of 206 counties nationwide, out of more than 3,000, that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before backing Trump in 2016.
The county supported Democrat Beto O’Rourke in his unsuccessful 2018 Senate challenge to Ted Cruz. It then returned to Trump in 2020 and 2024.
Outside the Jefferson County courthouse, Patsy Foret, 73, a retired schoolteacher, distributed campaign materials for local Democratic judicial candidate John Stevens, her neighbor.
Foret is herself a Republican who supports Trump and voted for Senate candidate and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Unlike her neighbor Stevens, Talarico had not convinced her to change her vote, largely because of his previous statements about transgender issues.
“I don’t understand why he said there are six genders. According to the Bible, there are only two. You can’t walk that back,” she said.
Foret also believed a claim—promoted by Trump at a Texas rally—that Talarico does not, or had not in the past, eaten meat.
“He was vegetarian, or whatever they call it, and now he eats meat,” she said. Talarico has never been a vegetarian or vegan, according to his campaign.
When early voting opened in Jefferson County, the Rogers Park Community Center was packed, with lines extending outside the building.
Our News Outlet found roughly equal numbers of Republicans and Democrats arriving to vote. Not one Republican said they planned to cross party lines for Talarico, while one independent voter said they would support him.
Democrats, however, claimed Republicans were changing sides privately. “In this county, it is very unlikely that a Republican will publicly admit they support Talarico,” said Shawn Webb, a real estate company owner in her 40s.
“It is happening, I can tell you that for sure. This is a smaller, tight-knit community, and people want to remain anonymous because they fear backlash—but it’s happening.”
Some Republicans said they had been driven to vote early not by enthusiasm for Paxton, but by fear of what they believed Talarico represented.
“Paxton is not my favorite Republican, but James Talarico scares me to death. I don’t want somebody like him in office—any office,” said Jim Gentry, 84.
Others labeled Talarico a “socialist” or “communist” and accused him of trying to “steal” Republican votes by appealing to Christians.
America’s Heartland
In Kansas, the possibility of a Democrat winning a Senate seat—something that has not happened since 1932—has energized supporters of both parties.
Trump carried the state by a landslide in 2016, 2020 and 2024, but his approval rating there has fallen to 40 percent.
Nearly $60 million has already poured into the race, with negative advertising reaching especially bitter depths.
Republicans accuse Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, of “protecting a pedophile” in connection with a church abuse scandal from 20 years ago.
Democrats, meanwhile, are running an advertisement accusing Republican incumbent Roger Marshall of “protecting child abusers and rapists” because he voted against releasing the Epstein Files.
The central question in Kansas may be whether MAGA voters who turned out for Trump in presidential elections will also cast ballots for Marshall.
Republicans need to build a large margin in rural western Kansas, while Democrats are expected to run up their numbers in the Kansas City suburbs to the east.
Purple Sedgwick County, in the south-central part of the state and home to the 400,000-person city of Wichita, is expected to be decisive.
“This is our chance to get rid of the corruption and, certainly, send a message to the White House that we don’t like him—Trump,” said Mike Sullivan, 66, a lifelong Democrat and bookseller.
“We don’t use Donald Trump’s name around our house. He’s just ‘that man.’ You know, that man started a war we didn’t need to start. He is morally reprehensible, too.”
Our News Outlet spoke with several early voters who had previously supported Republicans but were switching to Democrats.
Jeff Mohr, 65, a retired accountant, said he had voted Republican for most of his life but would vote Democratic this time.
“Mostly, it’s Trump’s demeanor,” he said. “And Republicans won’t stand their ground. I want Congress to provide checks on the Defense Secretary and DHS.”
Lynn Ferguson, 62, a registered Republican who works in a quilt shop, said she was now “leaning Democrat” because Marshall supported Trump after the January 6 riot.
Yet when Trump appeared at a rally at Wichita’s Heartland Credit Union Arena on October 19, the enormous crowd offered unmistakable evidence of Republican enthusiasm.
Michael Green, 66, dressed in head-to-toe stars and stripes, arrived eight hours before the event.
“I would like to think the silent majority, in this case a conservative Republican majority, will win this for Roger Marshall,” he said.
In the final days, the White House made a curious decision. It initially canceled Trump’s final Kansas rally, scheduled for Saturday, before reinstating it on Sunday.
Motor City showdown
In Michigan’s Macomb County, the contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers is equally tight.
The county includes Detroit’s blue-collar suburbs and is famous as the birthplace of the “Reagan Democrats.” It voted twice for Barack Obama, but Trump flipped it in 2016, won it again in 2020 and carried it by 13 points in 2024.
Voters told Our News Outlet that they expect another close election.
“I’m stuck, and I know I have very, very little time before I have to go and vote,” said Stacy Perry, a local restaurant owner. “Everything has tripled in price.”
Jeff Borja, a retired history teacher and independent voter, said: “I’ve voted red, I’ve voted blue. I vote on policy and on who is going to affect me in a positive way.”
Supporters of Abdul El-Sayed gather ahead of a rally in late October
Borja said he had not “seen [Rogers] here in Michigan in a long, long, long time, and now he’s here.” El-Sayed, he added, was connecting with many voters. “I think he’s speaking about things that really affect people’s situations. I think he’s putting people first.”
Borja voted for Trump in 2016 but said he had been “disappointed” by the president’s tariff policy and especially by January 6, which he called “embarrassing.”
“We learned a long time ago that the only people who suffer from tariffs are the citizens of the country imposing them,” he said.
Macomb County will test whether Trump’s blue-collar coalition turns out when he himself is not on the ballot.
The Buckeye State
Polls suggest Ohio Democrats are on the verge of victories in both the U.S. Senate race and the governor’s contest, a sharp reversal of the state’s decade-long shift toward Trump.
In Montgomery County, which includes the manufacturing city of Dayton, the economy was the dominant concern.
The county narrowly supported Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, then shifted to Trump in 2016 by less than one percentage point. It backed Joe Biden in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024, but Harris led Trump by only 0.5 percent.
It remains a genuine swing area, competitive for both parties and one to watch this year.
Voters told Our News Outlet that they, too, were feeling the pressure of the rising cost of living.
“I’m a factory worker and have been working in a factory for 30-something years,” said Darnell. “The cost of living right now, the gas prices—I mean, everything is just too expensive. I don’t care for JD Vance. I don’t care for Donald Trump.”
Another man, Kyle, added: “The cost of groceries. The cost of gas. The cost of everything. It’s bad.”
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Ohio voters told Our News Outlet they are increasingly frustrated by the high cost of living
Vacationland
In Maine’s Waldo County, Kevin, a former McDonald’s worker and independent voter, supported Democratic Senate candidate Troy Jackson but said he had backed Republicans in the past.
“That was back when he—Trump—wasn’t doing what he’s doing now, insulting everybody. I don’t like that.”
Another voter, Tim, said he was not enthusiastic about either Jackson or Republican Senator Susan Collins.
“I don’t like either one of them,” he said. “My number one issue is the price of everything. It’s become ridiculous. Electricity is through the roof. I’m not a big fan of Susan Collins. She’s a liar. I guess all politicians are, anyway.”
Susan Collins faces a difficult reelection fight against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine
“But we can’t have the Democrats. We’ll be a bunch of communists before it’s all over. I don’t trust any of them. I’m going with Collins only because we don’t have enough choices.”
Collins will need support from Biden voters to survive another election cycle, and some of those voters could come from Waldo County.
The county backed Hillary Clinton over Trump by just 62 votes in 2016.
Although voters there supported Biden in 2020, they also gave Collins, a Republican, an 11-point reelection victory that year.
“Everything is just more expensive,” James Cox, 38, told Our News Outlet.
“Daily life costs about twice as much as it did just four or five months ago.”
That is the weakness in the Republican wall: the cost of war being felt at the gas pump.
On Tuesday, voters in these bellwether counties will decide whether they have finally had enough.
