A Russian military spacecraft that moved unusually close to a Western satellite last month may have been simulating an attack, according to a specialist in military space operations.
Two related Russian satellites are now traveling toward the orbital path of another Western spacecraft.
US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno said on X after the mid-October encounter that Russia’s Cosmos 2612 had “intentionally maneuvered dangerously close to a commercial satellite” in behavior he described as “consistent with on-orbit weapons operations.”
The satellite it approached, X36, is operated by Finnish company ICEYE. Its radar-imaging technology is used by Western governments and armed forces, including Ukraine.
The development came after US space-tracking company LeoLabs reported that Cosmos 2612 had moved into “extreme proximity” to ICEYE’s Ukraine-linked X36 over South America.
Three space experts described the encounter as one of the closest publicly known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low Earth orbit.
“It looks like an attack rehearsal,” said Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, a US firm that trains American space forces. “This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take when threatening another nation’s satellites,” he told Reuters.
Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Moscow has repeatedly warned that Western commercial satellites supporting Ukraine could be treated as potential targets for retaliation.
An artist’s concept of satellite X36 made by Iceye, a space company providing Ukraine with intelligence
Ann Stevens, who leads ICEYE’s US operations, said X36 “has been and will continue to be a productive satellite.” She added that the company’s radar-imaging constellation was designed to remain resilient even if individual spacecraft were disrupted.
The incident has intensified concerns about the vulnerability of commercial satellite networks, which have become increasingly important to military operations around the world.
It also follows months of Russian activity near ICEYE satellites. Western officials have warned that the maneuvers may reveal capabilities that could be used to threaten or interfere with commercial constellations, including those operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
Gillinger, a former US Air Force intelligence officer who has monitored Russian spacecraft, said Cosmos 2612 appeared to be testing a capability linked to a possible kinetic attack. In his view, such a close approach would not be necessary solely for intelligence gathering or electronic disruption.
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US space intelligence company Slingshot Aerospace publicly lists Cosmos 2612 as a satellite intended for servicing and inspection missions.
The spacecraft was one of six Russian military satellites launched in April. Space analysts said Russia brought four of them near X36 in May. ICEYE later repositioned the satellite, leading to additional Russian maneuvers, the company’s chief executive, Rafal Modrzewski, told Reuters in September.
At the beginning of October, analysts said Cosmos 2612 placed itself several hundred kilometers behind X36.
Over the following days, it rapidly reduced the gap, coming within about one kilometer (half a mile) of X36 around the middle of the month. Some analysts estimated that the distance may have narrowed to just a few hundred meters or less.
Cosmos 2612 later moved roughly 400 km (250 miles) away, according to Gillinger. He said two sister Russian satellites were now drifting toward the orbital track of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37.
US space-monitoring company COMSPOC likewise reported that the two Russian satellites were becoming increasingly positioned for a potential approach to X37.
Public space-object catalogs identify both X36 and X37 as satellites registered in the United States.
Germany’s space commander, Major General Michael Traut, said close approaches such as the one involving Cosmos 2612 could serve a range of purposes, including inspection, surveillance or interference, depending on the spacecraft’s capabilities.
“We must therefore consider the full range of possible consequences, from temporarily interrupting a satellite’s operations to permanently disabling it,” he said.
However, Traut cautioned that the ability to carry out such maneuvers did not by itself prove that Russia was preparing for or rehearsing an attack. He said the spacecraft’s purpose could not be established from publicly available orbital data alone.
The world’s major powers are increasingly preparing for the possibility that future conflicts could extend into space. Washington recently acknowledged deploying weapons in orbit, while the head of US Space Command said earlier this year that Russia had placed a space weapon within range of critical US national security satellites.
Andrew Turner, a space consultant and retired senior British air force officer, said Russia’s maneuver near X36 “really elevates the potential of an attack,” whether through deliberate action or an unintended collision.
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