Kamala Harris may have experienced her most promising campaign weeks yet, according to insights from our J.L. Partners/DailyMail.com election model. This model, which integrates the latest polling data, historical election results, and economic indicators, reveals that despite Harris’s strides, Donald Trump is currently widening a 10-point lead.
While Harris appears to have the upper hand in the popular vote, with the model projecting she would secure 50.8 percent support and a 65 percent likelihood of finishing with more overall votes in November, the state-specific figures suggest a different story. The key battleground states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan—are leaning towards Trump, providing him a significant edge in the electoral college, crucial for clinching the presidency.
According to the model, Trump holds a 55.2 percent probability of winning the election, whereas Harris stands at 44.6 percent, with a minimal chance of a deadlock. To grasp the implications, consider the model as running countless simulations with various scenarios across all states. In these simulations, Trump emerges victorious 55.2 percent of the time, underscoring his current advantage in the race for the White House.
That is an increase of four points since Monday and nine points since his post-debate low. Either way, it shows the race will be close despite the monumental events of the past two months or so, when President Joe Biden dropped out to be replaced by Harris, and Trump survived two assassination attempts.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said a lot could happen between now and Election Day, but the current trend was clear. ‘Things are continuing to move against Harris,’ he said. ‘While September saw her gain ground as a result of the debate and changes in ballot access, things have started to settle back to where they were at the start of September.
‘If current trends continue (although these have only been in place for a week or so) then we may see Trump take a more concrete lead in the race over the coming few weeks. ‘September seems to have been Harris’ high point and trends suggest that this high has come to an end.’ Harris enjoyed record-breaking fundraising immediately after entering the race. And her poll numbers boosted.
She also bested Trump, by most measures, in their debate earlier this month. But the election model suggests that her advantage in the popular vote is balanced by Trump’s support in some of the states that will decide the outcome.
So the model suggests Pennsylvania has moved further into the Trump column. his probability of winning state is now 58 percent, an eight-point increase on where he stood immediately after the debate. Trump’s probability of winning Pennsylvania has increased again and now stands at around 58% – an 8 point improvement on his post-debate low of 50%.
Yet as things stand, he leads by less than one-point of the vote in the state, or about 27,000 voters. They could be the ones who ultimately decide who occupies the White House in January because if the model is tweaked to give Pennsylvania to Trump, then the former president wins election 100 percent of the time.
Other election models show things moving in Trump’s direction after a number of positive polls. A national Quinnipiac Poll showed him one point ahead and a New York Times/Siena Poll gave him the lead in the critical Sun Belt states of Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. For now, the result is that Trump simply has more paths to power than his rival.
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