ORLANDO, Fla. – Residents of northwestern counties are facing a level-two risk for severe storms, while the rest of the area falls under a level-one risk. This weather alert signals a shift from the cold conditions we’ve been experiencing, hinting at the transition to warmer, spring-like weather.
For some time, the primary focus has been on cold temperatures, but this marks a clear turning point. We can save discussions about the seasonal shift for another time, as our immediate concern is keeping everyone safe from the impending storms.
Throughout most of Sunday, the weather will remain fairly tranquil. Southerly winds sweeping across the peninsula will bring increased humidity and scattered clouds, all driven by warm air being pulled in by the approaching storm system.
However, conditions are expected to deteriorate between 6-8 p.m. tonight, shortly after sunset. This timeframe is particularly critical for residents in Alachua, Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties, where there is a heightened risk of scattered storm impacts.
The worst arrives…
A good bulk of your Sunday will be relatively clear. Breezy southerly winds across the peninsula, combined with additional mugginess and scattered clouds all thanks to the warm air being drawn up by our storm.
We won’t see things go downhill until 6-8 p.m. tonight, just after sunset. This is primarily for those of you up in Alachua, Marion, Putnam, and Flagler counties. That’s where the threat for more-scattered storm impacts continues.
Further up north and west is where I am anticipating we have our greatest chance at seeing stronger storms producing gusty, damaging winds. There is a shot for some smaller hail if these storms can hold together long enough.
I also see a low-end funnel cloud or even isolated tornado risk along our west shore, reaching back into Central Florida.
Now, these threats do diminish as we get deeper into the evening and overnight hours.
Everyone checking in from up north will see conditions improve as we go between 10-11 p.m. Then, the threat transitions to the Orlando area, Four Corners counties, Volusia, and Brevard counties.
We’ll see a lower risk of anything very strong developing since we’ve lost our energy source, the sun, from earlier in the daytime.
The risk for anything trying to spin and produce a funnel or a tornado goes down as well as the line reaches deeper into Central Florida.
However, while the problems become way more isolated by this point, we still have to stay weather aware between 10 p.m. and midnight. Computer models still pinpoint the possibility of our storm line holding some organization and creating heavy rains, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
After midnight, we’ll all start to wind down. Then things get comfortable again.
Some key takeaways for you –
Be careful if you are on your way home from the Daytona race. Have a plan to either get off the road, or stay off the road until the worst weather is out of the way.
If you are out and about gearing up for the week ahead, make sure you note the times above. Get things done as early as you can so you can retreat to home base before the worst comes in.
Our MAIN threats to keep an eye out for remain gusty winds, hail that could cause some light damage, locally-heavy rainfall, and the cloud-to-ground lightning.
Tornadoes are not out of the realm of possibility, but I am seeing the bulk of our tornado-producing ingredients for our northwestern counties and the Gulf coastline. That’s not to say we take our foot off the throttle and ignore if you aren’t in those aforementioned areas.
We will be putting out consistent updates through the day today to keep you and your family aware of the weather from start to finish.
[DAILY FORECAST BELOW: Front brings storms to Central Florida]
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