On Wednesday, researchers announced that errors in data had led to an overestimation of the predicted decline in global income due to climate change over the next quarter-century.
Scientists from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research had originally published findings in the journal Nature, projecting a 19% decrease in global income by 2050. Their updated analysis, however, has revised this figure to a 17% decline.
Initially, the study suggested there was a 99% probability that the costs of repairing climate change damage would surpass the expenses of building resilience by mid-century. The latest analysis, which has yet to undergo peer review, adjusts this probability to 91%.
The Associated Press had previously covered the original study, and on Wednesday, Nature issued a retraction.
The researchers pointed to inaccuracies in the initial data, particularly concerning economic statistics from Uzbekistan for the years 1995 to 1999, which significantly skewed the results. They also acknowledged that their previous analysis underestimated statistical uncertainty.
Max Kotz, one of the study’s authors, emphasized to the AP that the study’s core message remains unchanged: if left unaddressed, climate change poses a severe threat to the global economy, disproportionately affecting low-income regions that contribute minimally to the planet’s warming.
Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia Business School who wasn’t involved with the research, said the thrust of the Potsdam Institute’s work remains the same “no matter which part of the range the true figure will be.”
“Climate change already hits home, quite literally. Home insurance premiums across the U.S. have already seen, in part, a doubling over the past decade alone,” Wagner said. “Rapidly accumulating climate risks will only make the numbers go up even more.”
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Alexa St. John is an Associated Press climate reporter. Follow her on X: @alexa_stjohn. Reach her at ast.john@ap.org.
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