RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — New polling data shows a potential 2024 rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is tightening in Virginia.

The poll, conducted by The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, shows Biden (48%) leading Trump (44%) by four percentage points. That’s down considerably from Biden’s (54%-38%) 16-point lead in May. 

“So, it’s not a surprise. Biden won by 10 points in 2020. He’s obviously suffered a lot of setbacks since then, although the economy is improving,” said Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “I suspect Biden is at his low point. We’ve seen this before in presidential politics and a year ahead of the election is about right for the low point. I would think he would move up. How much? I don’t know.”

Plus, the poll found that if Trump and Biden are the nominees, 45% of Virginians say they would consider voting for an independent candidate. 

“This is a way for people to express their dissatisfaction with what the parties are producing for their nominees,” Sabato explained. “But in the end, they make a practical choice, they don’t want to throw their vote away on an independent or third-party candidate who is not going to win.”

Despite the poll, Sabato says that on a federal level, a Republican is unlikely to win Virginia. 

“Virginia is not a swing state in 2024, and if somehow it becomes one, you know the election is over and the Republican nominee is going to win,” said Sabato.

The last time Virginia voted for a Republican in a presidential election was in 2004, when President George W. Bush defeated Massachusetts Senator John Kerry by eight percentage points.