NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are set to face off in their final debate for the governor’s race in New Jersey on Wednesday. The race has drawn significant attention as the topics of the federal government shutdown, Sherrill’s military service history, and the state’s high living costs dominate the discourse.

This year, New Jersey, along with Virginia, is holding gubernatorial elections, and the outcomes are being closely analyzed as a reflection of public sentiment towards President Donald Trump’s ongoing term and the Democratic engagement in these contexts.

The hour-long debate serves as an opportunity for the candidates to solidify their messages to the electorate, with voters having already started to submit mail-in ballots prior to the November 4 election day. In-person early voting is slated from October 25 through November 2.

Although New Jersey has consistently leaned Democratic in presidential and Senate votes for years, its gubernatorial elections in odd years have alternated between the two major parties. Historically, since the 1980s, the state’s voters have typically selected a governor from the party opposite that of the sitting president. However, Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who was not eligible for another term, bucked this trend in 2021 by narrowly defeating Ciattarelli, who is now making his third bid for the governorship.

The state has exhibited a shift towards conservatism recently. Trump lost narrowly to Democrat Kamala Harris last November by 6 percentage points, a noticeable shift from his 13-point loss in the state during the 2016 election.

During their initial debate, Ciattarelli attacked Sherrill’s proposals as being unclear and misleading, while Sherrill linked Ciattarelli to Trump and questioned his financial expertise, particularly in accounting. Trump had thrown his support behind Ciattarelli in the Republican primary, praising his allegiance to the “Make America Great Again” strategy with full confidence, despite Ciattarelli’s earlier criticisms of him.

Here’s what to watch for in the debate, televised locally on ABC:

Shutdown and the Hudson River tunnel

The candidates are taking different approaches on the federal government shutdown, which started last week.

One key difference centers on the Hudson River rail project, which has been decades in the planning and would replace more than century-old tunnels connecting New Jersey and New York City. The Trump administration has used the shutdown as a pretext to freeze funding for the project amid a review of its compliance with the administration’s diversity policies.

Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman elected during Trump’s first midterm to a longtime GOP-held seat, has advocated for funding throughout her time in office and has sharply criticized the freeze, holding a news conference outside a suburban New York rail station.

She could lean into the effect the shutdown could have on the project, which is continuing work for now, though it’s unclear when federal reimbursements might run out if the shutdown drags on.

“Trump has frozen the funding for this all important project. And what has Jack Ciattarelli said? Not much,” Sherrill said at the recent event in Glen Ridge, New Jersey.

Ciattarelli has blasted Sherrill as responsible for the shutdown as a member of Congress. Look for him to criticize her for voting for previous continuing resolutions that kept the government open under former President Joe Biden despite voting against the current Republican-backed measure.

The release of military records

Another topic likely to be raised in the debate stems from two related but separate stories about Sherrill’s time in the Navy. One story detailed how Sherrill’s mostly unredacted military record was released to a Republican operative close to Ciattarelli’s campaign. The other centers on news that Sherrill did not participate in the 1994 graduation from the Naval Academy amid fallout that year from a well-documented cheating scandal.

Sherrill said she was barred from walking because she did not turn in fellow classmates. She still graduated, was commissioned and went on to become a helicopter pilot.

Ciattarelli’s campaign has called on her to release additional records to back up that defense, but she has declined.

“If those sealed disciplinary records match Representative Sherrill’s current explanation, we are unsure why she would refuse to release the records and put this matter to rest,” the campaign said in an email.

In a recent interview, Sherrill said her files show a “record of service.”

“I’m certainly not going to allow him,” she said, “to rampage through the records of my classmates at the academy.”

Instead, Sherrill’s campaign has seized on the improper release of information to the National Archives with personal information unredacted.

Her campaign has publicized an inspector general’s investigation into the release, and she’s published letters online from the archives, including an apology saying the records were given out “in error.”

It’s not clear whether any of the records the National Archives released in error were related to the reasons she was not allowed to participate in the graduation ceremony.

Affordability and who’s to blame

Both candidates are hammering the high cost of living in New Jersey. Sherrill has said she’d issue an executive order freezing utility rates, which have climbed steadily over the summer. Ciattarelli talks about capping sky-high property taxes as a percentage of home value.

Ciattarelli blames the economic woes on longtime Democratic control of the state Legislature and the governorship for the past eight years. Calling for a change in Trenton has been a central plank of his campaign.

Sherrill, meanwhile, points to the president’s tariffs and trade wars as the cause of voters’ belt tightening. She regularly asks voters to elect her to stand up to Trump’s policies, which she casts as out of touch in the Democratic-leaning state.